Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
540 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

A VERY WEAK CAP AND SYNOPTIC SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION HAS KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK THUS FAR...HOWEVER UPWARD MOTION WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SHORTLY AND THEN INTENSIFY AFTER 03Z AS A 90 KNOT JET
SEGMENT PUNCHES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN INCREASING SOON ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THAT AT 22Z EXTENDED FROM FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOUR TO THE TULSA
METRO AREA AND ON SOUTHWEST THROUGH OKFUSKEE COUNTY.  MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN THE MOST PESISTENT DURING THE PAST TWO HOURS
ALONG AN OLD ACTIVITY BOUNDARY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR...AND ON THE FRONT IN THE TULSA METRO AREA AND IN OTTAWA
AND CRAIG COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40 KNOTS SUGGEST A MIXED
STORM MODE OF MULTICELLS...AND BRIEF SUPERCELLS.  THE BEST SHEAR AS
NEAR THE ACTIVITY BOUNDARY.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICTITY VALUES
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

WITH TIME A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASING.

FORECAST ID= 08

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FOR ZONES
ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FOR ZONES
OKZ049...OKZ053...OKZ058...OKZ063...OKZ068>076.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. THIS AREA OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

AT 1 PM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NOWATA TO TULSA TO NORMAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE
ANOTHER FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 3
PM. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP MOST OF THESE STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BUT AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO MAY RESULT IN LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
THIS EVENING THAT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING OCCURRED LATE LAST WEEK.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-057-058-060>076-010300-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
OKMULGEE OK-OTTAWA OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-
SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 133 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.
THIS WATCH INCLUDES MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...AS WELL AS ALL OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE WATCH
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
RESIDENTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

OKZ068-302345-
CHEROKEE OK-
551 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE

AT 551 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WOODALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WOODALL...TAHLEQUAH AND
ELDON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

OKZ071-010000-
MCINTOSH OK-
620 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN MCINTOSH

AT 620 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHECOTAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHECOTAH AND
RENTIESVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

OKZ070-010045-
MUSKOGEE OK-
646 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN MUSKOGEE

AT 646 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MUSKOGEE COUTNY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PUMPKIN
CENTER...KEEFETON...WARNER...SUMMIT...BRAGGS AND WEBBERS FALLS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.