Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
935 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

STRONGER 850-700 MILLIBAR FLOW TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY YIELDED A
TORNADIC OUTBREAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
TORNADIC STORMS HAVE WEAKENED WITH A TRANSITION UNDERWAY TO ELEVATED
STORMS WITH HAIL BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. TRAINING OF STORMS
EARLIER RESULTED IN COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH OVER 3 INCHES
FALLING IN ABOUT AN HOUR AT THE MESONET SITE IN SOUTHERN WAGONER
COUNTY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT AS HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. CAPPING INVERSION HAS
PREVENTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BUT THE 00Z
ETA INDICATES THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN THIS AREA
LATE TONIGHT. IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN THIS
AREA BUT DO NOT FEEL TOTALLY COMFORTABLE CANCELLING THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER ANYWAY.
THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY AREAWIDE
BUT THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL
GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FRIDAY MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING LIKE TODAY.
BEYOND 00Z FRIDAY...WATER WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

ADJUSTED POPS TONIGHT TO FIT THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO REMOVED THE
SEVERE WORDING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST.

UPDATE COMING SHORTLY.

FORECAST ID= 05

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHTY FOR ZONES
ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ049...OKZ053>076.

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
  MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES RESIDE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
NEAR TULSA SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH STORMS TRACKING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.  THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE AND THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES BEING HIGHEST NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
LOCATIONS.

OF EQUAL CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WHERE
LATEST DATA SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL TONIGHT.  A FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED...AND PERSONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING CONDITIONS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.  ALL SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THROUGH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.  CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY BECOME MORE TRANQUIL
WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
813 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-OKZ068>072-074-230500-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-
HASKELL OK-MADISON AR-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
WASHINGTON AR-
813 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 106 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
830 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

ARZ019-230215-
CRAWFORD AR-
830 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

AT 830 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MOUNTAINBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BIDVILLE...MOUNTAINBURG...
CHESTER...LOCKE AND MT GAYLER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
847 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

OKZ054-060-230245-
OSAGE OK-TULSA OK-
847 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE AND TULSA

AT 847 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPERRY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SPERRY AND
SKIATOOK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
942 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

OKZ057-230315-
CRAIG OK-
942 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CRAIG

AT 942 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HOLLOW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HOLLOW AND WELCH. ANOTHER
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST CRAIG COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     HAIL             4 W EUFAULA             35.29N 95.65W
04/22/2004  1.00 INCH        MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-OKZ068>072-074-230300-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-
HASKELL OK-MADISON AR-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
WASHINGTON AR-
950 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 106 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS REPLACING THE TORNADO WATCH.