Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
150 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS ARE APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH HAIL AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME LOCAL FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A SLOW  MOVING AND DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIES SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY LOCATED FROM LAWTON TO
PRYOR...WITH THE STORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT.
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATED A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 700MB ACROSS
THE REGION. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED ABOVE THIS LEVEL AND IS
MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SEVERE LEVELS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.

AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST ELEVATED INSTABILITIES ARE LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE
AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

FORECAST ID= 06

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

A WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVANCE
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH PIECES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.  AS THE
WARM FRONT NOSES INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR TWO STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.  NORTH OF
THE FRONT ELEVATED STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL JET ONCE AGAIN
STRENGTHENS.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

A 50 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING.  AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.  STRONG WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH CAPES OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A 90 TO 100 KNOT MID LEVEL JET MAX COMBINED
WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY RESULT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  AS A SURFACE DRYLINE
ADVANCES EAST...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN END QUICKLY AFTER THE DRYLINE PASSES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  ONCE THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY...SETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OUTLOOKED PERIOD.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR
AND GRAPHICAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1238 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

OKZ065-066-031915-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
1238 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 1238 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF PHAROAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WILSON...
PHAROAH...OKMULGEE...PRESTON AND BEGGS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

OKZ068-070-072-031915-
CHEROKEE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
1250 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE...MUSKOGEE AND SEQUOYAH

AT 1250 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2
MILES SOUTH OF WEBBERS FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PUMPKIN
CENTER...GORE...BOX...TAHLEQUAH...COOKSON AND WEBBERS FALLS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
111 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

OKZ060-031945-
TULSA OK-
111 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 145 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     TULSA

AT 111 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LIBERTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LIBERTY...TULSA...BIXBY...JENKS...
OWASSO...GLENPOOL AND BROKEN ARROW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

OKZ054-059-064-032000-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
120 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE...PAWNEE AND CREEK

AT 120 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF OILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MANNFORD...OSAGE...HOMINY...
JENNINGS...TERLTON...HALLETT...CLEVELAND...WESTPORT...DRUMRIGHT...
OILTON AND SILVER CITY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
133 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

OKZ067-068-070-032000-
CHEROKEE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-WAGONER OK-
133 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE AND MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WAGONER

AT 133 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
WEST OF SUMMIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HULBERT...LOST CITY...PEGGS...
TULLAHASSEE...OKAY...MUSKOGEE...SUMMIT AND FORT GIBSON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.  RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
143 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

ARZ001-OKZ063-069-032015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-DELAWARE OK-
143 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     DELAWARE AND ADAIR

AT 143 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
SOUTH OF KANSAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KANSAS...COLCORD...WEST
SILOAM SPRINGS...SILOAM SPRINGS...SULPHUR SPRINGS...GENTRY...
MAYSVILLE...GRAVETTE...CHEROKEE CITY...DECATUR AND HIWASSE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.