Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
317 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DETERMINING HOW HIGH TO GO WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM WASHINGTON STATE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW 110KT AIRREPS. ONE
SHORTWAVE TROF ALONG THE JET WAS MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA WITH
ANOTHER PASSING THROUGH IDAHO WITH WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN CANADA/US BORDER. MID
LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD WITH COOLER
JUST NORTH AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BEST COLD AIR AT 850MB
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SECONDARY BOUNDARY FROM
WESTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN IOWA. SURFACE OBS SHOWING OUTFLOW
ENHANCED SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD MOVED INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY 19Z WITH
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND IT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. INSTABILITY QUITE HIGH WITH TEMPS AROUND 90...AND 18Z TOP
SOUNDING INDICATING NEAR 4000 J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY LITTLE CIN.
SHEAR NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS FORCING MECHANISM FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS FURTHER AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT...AND
BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS NEARBY. IF MANY STORMS CAN
DEVELOP...DIRECTION OF UPPER FLOW MAY BRING STORMS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...AND GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH DUE TO LACK OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING/FOCUSING MECHANISM. WILL WATCH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
FOR ANY LAST MINUTE UPDATES...BUT HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD
AT THIS POINT. FAR WESTERN WAVE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. INCREASING
WINDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE JUST OFF THE SURFACE MAY KEEP STORMS GOING
INTO THE NIGHT. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD WASH OUT ANY
REMAINING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN CASE
ANYTHING LINGERS INTO THE MORNING AND FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES LATE. FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...PUSHING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLOW TO STILL REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL WITH THE
THREAT OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW
TRACKING INTO THE AREA.  AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY TUESDAY...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER POPS DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT PRECIP MENTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TIME...QUITE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE WEEK/EARLY
NEXT WEEK PERIODS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THE GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH AMPLIFIED 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO
ITS ENSEMBLES. FRONT TO THE SOUTH MAY TRY TO PUSH BACK NORTH AS
REINFORCING COLD SHOT COMES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
FRIDAY. FRONT COULD EASILY BECOME PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND NOT
STRAY FAR FROM THE AREA. WILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THIS IN MIND. MAY FINALLY BE
ENOUGH MOVEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE DRY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFICS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN LOW MODEL SKILL SCORES AND MCS
EFFECTS ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. EXPECT SURFACE FRONT TO BE SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND BACKED OFF ON TEMPS FOR THE EARLY PERIODS. EXPECT A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
459 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-151000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
459 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
127 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-150200-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
127 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 469 REMAINS IN EFFECT...

THE WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

  REPUBLIC              WASHINGTON            NEMAHA
  MARSHALL              BROWN                 CLOUD
  JACKSON               CLAY                  RILEY
  POTTAWATOMIE          JEFFERSON             OTTAWA
  GEARY                 SHAWNEE               WABAUNSEE
  DICKINSON             DOUGLAS               MORRIS
  OSAGE                 LYON                  FRANKLIN
  COFFEY                ANDERSON

SOME CITIES STILL IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...

  EMPORIA               OTTAWA                ABILENE
  LAWRENCE              JUNCTION CITY         TOPEKA
  MANHATTAN             CLAY CENTER           CONCORDIA
  MARYSVILLE            HIAWATHA