Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Topeka, KS

June 12, 20045 counties in Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 12, 2004, 9:27 PM CDT for 5 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 63 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 12, 2004, 9:27 PM CDT (02:27 UTC)
Expired: Jun 12, 2004, 10:30 PM CDT
In force: 63 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Clay County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Geary County, KS, Morris County, KS, Riley County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 12, 9:45 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Abilene, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 18 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 12, 6:15 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3291 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1132 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 81 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 192 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.0
Supercell composite: 12.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

411 
WUUS53 KTOP 130227
SVRTOP
KSC027-041-061-127-161-130330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
927 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  DICKINSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS
  GEARY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
  NORTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
  SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
  SOUTHWESTERN RILEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 926 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS
  WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  WAKEFIELD TO 3 MILES WEST OF CARLTON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLAY CENTER TO 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
  SALINA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ABILENE
  MOONLIGHT
  ENTERPRISE
  WAKEFIELD
  CHAPMAN
  HOPE
  MILFORD LAKE
  MILFORD
  RILEY
  WOODBINE
  HERINGTON
  JUNCTION CITY
  KEATS
  OGDEN
  DWIGHT
  WHITE CITY
  PARKERVILLE
  LATIMER
  WILSEY

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES RAPIDLY.

LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3932 9732 3861 9735 3862 9655 3929 9662

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 12, 3:38 PM CDT, 5 hours 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 12, 3:38 PM CDT, 5 hours 49 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN IS SQUARELY ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE
SHORT TERM. THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES STILL TO EVOLVE WITH RESPECT TO
EXPECTED CONVECTION AND HOW THAT WILL PLAY INTO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THEREFOR CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEK.

THE DRYLINE HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST
AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND TOWERING CU COULD BE
SEEN AT 20Z ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OK AND NORTH CENTRAL KS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS DRYLINE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
NORTHEAST. THE 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED MORE THAN ENOUGH CAPE AVAILABLE
WITH A FAVORABLE SHEER PROFILE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SUGGESTING VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STORMS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TONIGHT.

THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEED BACK BEYOND TONIGHT PRETTY
BADLY...GENERATING AN MCS SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS ALSO AFFECTED ITS SURFACE AND UPPER
AIR PATTERN AND HAVE NOT USED ITS SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THIS. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE ETA MORE CLOSELY WHICH ALSO INDICATES THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT DOES NOT HAVE THE BULLS EYES
OF QPF. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TRENDS TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE ETA SHOWS THE MORE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS
OVER NORTHERN KS MONDAY NIGHT. I HAVE THE POP FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS.

AFTER TUESDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST
AND HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY  THINKING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. ALSO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE
NEB STATE LINE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES. AFTER WEDNESDAY MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THINK THE GFS IS SPREADING PRECIP TO FAR NORTH OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 80S...BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS FORECAST GOES THROUGH SEVERAL CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ALSO IF MCS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AS THE
GFS IS SHOWING...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE RISE.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
KSZ010>012-022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

WOLTERS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 12, 4:32 PM CDT, 4 hours 55 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED WORDING IN DAY 2 TRU 7 SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
432 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR.

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-131000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
432 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER IN
DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS OVER 70 MPH AND A FEW LARGE TORNADOES ARE
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 6 PM.  AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND
COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT TIME CREATING FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE RISK FOR WIDE SPREAD FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT IF THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE
SAME AREAS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ACTIVATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NOW.
SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 6 PM OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

WOLTERS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 12, 9:02 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
902 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     NORTONVILLE             39.41N 95.33W
06/12/2004  70 MPH           JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DS

Local storm report, Jun 12, 9:04 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
904 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HAIL             CLYDE                   39.59N 97.40W
06/12/2004  1.75 INCH        CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

Local storm report, Jun 12, 9:13 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
913 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     TSTM WND GST     TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
06/12/2004  74 MPH           SHAWNEE            KS   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            PEAK WIND 36064KT

&&

DS

Local storm report, Jun 12, 9:15 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
915 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             AURORA                  39.45N 97.53W
06/12/2004  1.25 INCH        CLOUD              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DS

Local storm report, Jun 12, 9:18 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
918 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W VALLEY FALLS        39.34N 95.53W
06/12/2004                   JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIDING BLOWN OFF HOUSE.

&&

DS

Local storm report, Jun 12, 9:25 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
925 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCLOUTH                 39.20N 95.21W
06/12/2004                   JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES.

&&

DS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 12, 7:37 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Republic	4 hr
Jun 12, 7:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Cloud, Republic	64 min
Jun 12, 7:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Marshall, Pottawatomie, Riley	48 min
Jun 12, 7:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Cloud	61 min
Jun 12, 8:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Brown, Jackson, Nemaha, Pottawatomie	43 min
Jun 12, 8:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Pottawatomie, Riley	45 min
Jun 12, 8:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Pottawatomie, Shawnee, Wabaunsee	39 min
Jun 12, 8:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Jefferson	45 min
Jun 12, 9:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Cloud, Washington	60 min
Jun 12, 9:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Douglas, Osage, Shawnee	63 min
Jun 12, 9:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Pottawatomie	59 min
Jun 12, 9:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Jefferson	53 min
Jun 12, 9:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Franklin, Osage	56 min
Jun 12, 10:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Wabaunsee	44 min
Jun 12, 10:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Geary, Morris, Wabaunsee	64 min
Jun 12, 10:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Pottawatomie	40 min
Jun 12, 11:23 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Dickinson	112 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.