Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL SUNSET...BEYOND THIS TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MID WEEK AND ON FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AT 18Z STILL LAGGING BACK OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH SEED
MAX PUSHING OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS HELPING TO FUEL ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST.  SURFACE MAP AT 20Z FRONT FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF OK.  WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND BOUNDARY
ACROSS CWA.  HAVE HAD SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POP UP AT TIMES OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT APPEARS DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  CONCERNS IS LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW SOME ENHANCE CLOUDS SPINNING ACROSS UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST AND SEEING SOME MID CLOUD RETURNS ON RADAR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
CWA.  WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES UNTIL
SUNSET GIVEN THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LOW TO
THE WEST.  LOWS TONIGHT FROM LOWER 50S NORTH CENTRAL MID 50S EXTREME
EAST CENTRAL.

ON MONDAY...NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS AREA HEADED FOR
OHIO VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA.  DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.  GIVEN
UPSTREAM TEMPS TODAY...GENERALLY FAVORING THE COOLER FWC NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY
BUT MODELS INCREASING RH IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLE ROTATION
AROUND GREAT LAKES LOW SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS WHILE HIGHS
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AFTER LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN RH AND HINTING OF SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR NOW KEEPING FORECAST DRY.
H850 MB TEMPS COOLEST ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLIPPING EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...STILL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HINT OF EMBEDDED
IMPULSES. SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH GRADUAL RETURN
OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITH RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS.  GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH IMPULSE TIMING LEFT GOING PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT LATEST GFS SAYS COULD BE AS EARLY AS DAY TIME
FRIDAY AND AS LATE AS LINGERING INTO PART OF SATURDAY. 00Z GFS
SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA AT
THIS TIME.  WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING...WARMING HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ON SUNDAY...GFS DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE RIDGE
SHARPENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  LAST AVAILABLE ECMWF PROG
HINTING OF THIS TRANSITION BUT WAS NOT AS SHARP LEADING INTO IT.
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-311000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A CONCORDIA...TO
MANHATTAN...TO TOPEKA LINE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR
STORMS WILL BE ALONG HIGHWAY 36 FROM MARYSVILLE TO HIAWATHA. SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)