Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
141 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN MT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST NM. THE 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF HILL CITY...KS WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NE AND A DRYLINE SOUTH
INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PNHDL.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE 5H TROUGH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. INCREASING
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE 5H WAVE...ALONG WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER 21Z ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NE. GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
EXTREME INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WINDHSEAR WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE BULGE...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECASTED TO BACK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
INTENSE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND
LONG TRACK TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF
THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  AFTER 00Z DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE DRYLINE. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EVENTUALLY THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE
AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR BOW ECHOS
AND WITH MESOCYCLONES POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOWS. THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FA MAY GET SOME HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE RUC AND MESO ETA SHOWS THE GREATEST QPF
NORTH IN EASTERN NE AND IA. I WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR JUST 3 COUNTIES IN MY NORTHEAST FA...SINCE MESOSCALE PROCESSES
WILL GO ALONG WAY INTO DETERMINING ANY FLOODING THREATS.

AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FA. I
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES
DUE TO THE COLD CORE 5H TROUGH PASSING OVER HEAD. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE 5H TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKE STATES KEEPING KANSAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK
PROVIDING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. A 5H RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL EXPAND EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER 5H TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY
PROVIDE US A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KSZ008>012-020>024-034>038-054-
WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A EMPORIA TO HIAWATHA LINE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-301000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
1148 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTH CENTRAL AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS IN A HIGH RISK AREA
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER OR
GREATER...WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THOSE USING THE AREA RECREATIONAL LAKES AND ATTENDING OUTSIDE
ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL BROADCASTS FOR
THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS.  HAVE A PLAN FOR SEEKING SHELTER, KEEPING IN
MIND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD START OVER NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD TO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-300300-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 323 REMAINS IN EFFECT...

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE TORNADO WATCH...

  REPUBLIC              WASHINGTON            NEMAHA
  MARSHALL              BROWN                 CLOUD
  JACKSON               CLAY                  RILEY
  POTTAWATOMIE          JEFFERSON             OTTAWA
  GEARY                 SHAWNEE               WABAUNSEE
  DICKINSON             DOUGLAS               MORRIS
  OSAGE                 LYON                  FRANKLIN
  COFFEY                ANDERSON

SOME CITIES STILL IN THE TORNADO WATCH...

  EMPORIA               OTTAWA                ABILENE
  LAWRENCE              JUNCTION CITY         TOPEKA
  MANHATTAN             CLAY CENTER           CONCORDIA
  MARYSVILLE            HIAWATHA