Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
308 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LATEST SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR KMCI TO KTOP TO JUST SOUTH OF SALINA AT 19Z. SOME SPOTTY
CUMULUS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO MISSOURI IN INSTABILITY AXIS. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH WEAKENING CAP. UPPER AIR
SATELLITE ANALYSIS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE WITH TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER BY 00Z THURSDAY THEN MOVE
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
ON THURSDAY. ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT INTO PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BACKING LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS AHEAD
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ADVECT A GOOD MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. HAVE
INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE FASTER GFS ON FRIDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED LOW POPS IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER WENT DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN MODELS DIVERGE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH GFS DROPPING A H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY
AND THE ECMWF KEEPING SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH AND A SHIFT TO A
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
504 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-181000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
504 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
507 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             2 W BURLINGAME          38.75N 95.87W
08/17/2004  0.75 INCH        OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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