Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
315 PM CDT WED APR 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIP CHANCES BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED FAIRLY WEAK UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH
SPEEDS OF 70KTS OR GREATER LIMITED TO AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN AND
GULF COAST U.S. BORDERS AND THE EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LOWS WERE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KANSAS WITH SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. 700MB LEVEL WAS VERY MOIST THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. 850MB FRONT WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE WAS
PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SUB ZERO TEMPS CELSIUS IN ITS
WAKE. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PUT FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION ALONG IT. OTHER STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF CLEARING AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT THOUGH FORCING ALONG IT BECOMES
LIMITED AS DOES INSTABILITY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. MODELS FAIRLY
SIMILAR IN HAVING LITTLE QPF SOUTH OF I-70 TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO
WATCH TRENDS FOR EVENING WORDING...BUT PLAN TO HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTH NEARER THE FRONT/S EARLY IMPACT.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE MORE PLEASANT DAYS OF THE PERIOD
WITH MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOOKS TO MOVE IN LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE WESTERN LOW BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO GET CRANKING BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
RAPID VEERING OF WINDS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 900MB AND 700MB. WILL GO
AHEAD WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE ALSO CUT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

UPPER TROF OVER CENTRAL CANADA TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL CUT A LITTLE OFF OF HIGHS WITH STRATUS POTENTIAL.
THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKER WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF BUT HAVE A
HARD TIME JUSTIFYING POPS FOR ANY SPECIFIC WAVE AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE NEXT WEEK PERIODS...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH DAY 5 SKILL SCORES RUNNING AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
IN A FEW WEEKS. COLD UPPER TROF TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE
PLAINS AS PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES.
AFTER A COLD START MONDAY MORNING /POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
TEMPS...THOUGH STILL EARLIER THAN THE LATEST FREEZE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS/...EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND BACK TOWARD MID APRIL
NORMALS. WILL KEEP THESE PERIODS DRY WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FEATURES TO
TIE POPS TO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
428 PM CDT WED APR 7 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-081000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
428 PM CDT WED APR 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNSET...THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE EVENING PASSES. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 PM CDT WED APR 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             3 N SCANDIA             39.84N 97.78W
04/07/2004  0.88 INCH        REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40 MPH WINDS ALSO REPORTED

&&

SMB