Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...

IT IS A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
AFTERNOON A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI IN THE AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COMPACT
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH IOWA.  A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN KANSAS HAS INITIATED STORMS NEAR BEATRICE, NEBRASKA
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.  I BELIEVE THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
VORTICITY MAX IN IOWA WILL LIMIT CONVECTION SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT IVE INSERTED A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE NEBRASKA
BORDER FOR THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.  THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP
SOUTH THIS EVENING.  WITH LITTLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND COLLAPSE BY MID EVENING. WITH THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

LOOKING FURTHER WEST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN COLORADO WILL LIKELY GENERATE A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS
THIS EVENING.  THE ETA AND GFS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD KEEP STORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THIS
ANTICIPATED COMPLEX MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN WITH THIS COMPLEX GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND RICH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION GENERATION. THEREFORE
I HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.  I HAVE THE LEAST CONFIDENCE THAT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE WILL BE REACHED EAST OF EMPORIA TONIGHT, BUT REMNANTS OF
TONIGHTS MCS MAY PERPETUATE INTO EASTERN KANSAS TOMORROW MORNING.

A SIMILAR SETUP IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS
ADVERTISE A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET TOMORROW NIGHT. TOMORROW EVENINGS
MCS COULD INITIATE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN TONIGHTS, BUT
WELL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION OF TONIGHTS SYSTEM TO
SEE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP TOMORROW.

KOCH (EAX)

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH NOON THURSDAY

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1210 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-171630-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
1210 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. A VERY HUMID ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TONIGHT A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

OVERNIGHT STORM COMPLEXES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS MAY ALSO
NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

KOCH (EAX)