Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
3 PM SUN FEB 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE SHOWING STRONG NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTCENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING.
CURRENT LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AS DRY SLOT NOSES NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA BY LATER THIS
EVENING...A NEW AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHWEST OK MAY ALSO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH THE COLD
POOL INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...THEN THE
THREAT FOR WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MOVES BACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREAS
OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES APPEAR TOO WARM FOR SNOW...MID LEVEL THICKNESS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND WITH LOWS LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE 30S...CANT RULE OUT SOME
SNOW MAKING IT THE GROUND WITH ANY PRECIP THAT WOULD WRAP INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH GOING IN STRONG
GRADIENT.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY...STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS
I-70...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LINGERING OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
DUE TO EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE MOST AREAS.

PRECIP THREAT ENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING AS UPPER
LOW PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY INTO
TUESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
AND BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. APPEARS THICKNESSES COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA ONLY BY THAT TIME WITH WAA
THEN UNDERWAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD AIR MOVES BACK
IN BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW NORTHWEST HALF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CAA WITHIN
AREA OF HEIGHTS FALLS FROM ADVANCING TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FOR
NOW...EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN DRY ON INTO
THE WEEKEND AS CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
435 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-011100-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
435 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT
OCCUR SHOULD WEAKEN BY 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME SNOW MAY FALL OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...FROM ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY STILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
518 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE JUNCTION CITY      39.00N 96.79W
02/29/2004                   GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED.

&&

DS