Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 170107
FFSTOP
KSC197-170330-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
804 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
WABAUNSEE COUNTY...

AT 714 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED WATER OVER 
HIGHWAY K99 ABOUT 1 TO 2 MILES NORTH OF ALMA. THUNDERSTORMS HAD 
DIMINISHED OVER THE WARNING AREA BUT FLOODING IS LIKELY CONTINUING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PAXICO
  MAPLE HILL
  ALMA

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER
MAY BE VERY DEEP. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE
ABANDONED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 3910 9595 3890 9595 3890 9648 3904 9648
          3904 9639 3914 9637 3918 9626 3918 9613

$$

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 170318
FFSTOP
KSC197-170330-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1020 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOODING HAVE ENDED AND 
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING HAS ALSO ENDED. HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING IS 
POSSIBLE. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS.

LAT...LON 3910 9595 3890 9595 3890 9648 3904 9648
          3904 9639 3914 9637 3918 9626 3918 9613

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...

IT IS A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
AFTERNOON A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI IN THE AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COMPACT
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH IOWA.  A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN KANSAS HAS INITIATED STORMS NEAR BEATRICE, NEBRASKA
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.  I BELIEVE THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
VORTICITY MAX IN IOWA WILL LIMIT CONVECTION SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT IVE INSERTED A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE NEBRASKA
BORDER FOR THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.  THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP
SOUTH THIS EVENING.  WITH LITTLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND COLLAPSE BY MID EVENING. WITH THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

LOOKING FURTHER WEST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN COLORADO WILL LIKELY GENERATE A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS
THIS EVENING.  THE ETA AND GFS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD KEEP STORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THIS
ANTICIPATED COMPLEX MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN WITH THIS COMPLEX GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND RICH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION GENERATION. THEREFORE
I HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.  I HAVE THE LEAST CONFIDENCE THAT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE WILL BE REACHED EAST OF EMPORIA TONIGHT, BUT REMNANTS OF
TONIGHTS MCS MAY PERPETUATE INTO EASTERN KANSAS TOMORROW MORNING.

A SIMILAR SETUP IS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS
ADVERTISE A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET TOMORROW NIGHT. TOMORROW EVENINGS
MCS COULD INITIATE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN TONIGHTS, BUT
WELL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION OF TONIGHTS SYSTEM TO
SEE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP TOMORROW.

KOCH (EAX)

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH NOON THURSDAY

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
705 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-171030-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
705 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
LATER TONIGHT...A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST FROM
WESTERN KANSAS.  THESE STORMS MAY BRING FLOODING RAIN AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&