Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MONTANA
1005 AM MDT SAT JUL 10 2004

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS INCREASE CLOUD AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES ON
TRACK EVEN WITH MORE CLOUDINESS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXPAND FOR
MOST OF CWA. WILL ADD TO ZONES. CAMP

.PREV DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA
AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. EXPECT STORMS TO START FIRING BETWEEN 3PM AND 5PM AND THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD. DEW POINTS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S BY AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE LIFT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SOME
SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF I-90. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL END AROUND
SUNSET...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA EXPECT DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR
SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND STRENGTHENS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD. MEIER

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROCKY
MOUNTAIN STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. A
FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WORK THROUGH AND COULD SET OFF SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER... DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BY THURSDAY... THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH BEGINS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... THE LOW WILL
REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST WHILE PUSHING INLAND SOME SMALLER
DISTURBANCES. THESE DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE
WHILE CREATING SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY... IT APPEARS THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL PUSH INLAND LATE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF BB 087/055 081/047 083 12361
    UBBUU 054/087 056/088 057/091 054/088 054 00022000000
CTB BB 082/050 076/044 080 12451
    UBBUB 053/084 053/088 055/089 053/086 053 00022000000
HLN BB 089/058 086/054 088 12331
    UBBUU 055/090 057/092 059/091 058/089 055 1022210-11-
BZN BB 087/051 084/048 086 12322
    UBBUU 052/088 052/090 053/090 052/087 052 12222000--0
WEY BB 077/042 075/037 077 12222
    UBBBB 046/080 048/081 049/082 046/079 046 -2222010--0
DLN BB 085/048 082/047 086 12222
    UBBBB 051/087 052/089 054/089 051/086 051 12222--111-
HVR BB 087/056 084/049 085 12262
    UBUUB 057/089 058/090 059/091 059/089 057 00022000011
LWT BB 083/055 081/046 081 12252
    UBBUU 055/086 055/087 057/090 057/087 055 00-22000000

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
505 AM MDT SAT JUL 10 2004

MTZ008>015-044>055-111105-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN
GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND
CLARK-MADISON-TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH
BASIN-FERGUS-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
650 AM MDT SAT JUL 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH... WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. PLEASE REFER TO GTFSPSTFX FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1252 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2004

MTZ009>014-044>054-110348-
BLAINE-BROADWATER-CASCADE-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-
CHOUTEAU-EASTERN GLACIER-EASTERN PONDERA-EASTERN TETON-FERGUS-HILL-
JEFFERSON-JUDITH BASIN-LIBERTY-MEAGHER-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-TOOLE-
1252 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2004

...POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA...

A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING MONTANA WILL BRING MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE STATE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...UNTIL ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED THROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.