Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Great Falls, MT
NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 20, 2004, 2:31 PM MDT for Cascade County, Montana. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 20, 2004, 2:31 PM MDT (20:31 UTC)
- Expired
- May 20, 2004, 3:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 29 min
- Issued by
- NWS Great Falls, MT
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Cascade County, MT
The radar
The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1270 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 10 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -35 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -12 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
187 WUUS55 KTFX 202031 SVRTFX MTC013-202100- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 231 PM MDT THU MAY 20 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL CASCADE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CASCADE * UNTIL 300 PM MDT * AT 223 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CASCADE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CASCADE AT 300 PM MDT HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN UP TO A HALF INCH IS LIKELY. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS. LAT...LON 4724 11203 4712 11178 4715 11160 4736 11173 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 20, 2:20 PM MDT, 11 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 20, 2:20 PM MDT, 11 minutes before
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MONTANA
220 PM MDT THU MAY 20 2004
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION GETTING STARTED EARLY TODAY AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IT IS A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY SO EXPECT SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY EVEN PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT A FEW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY AND SPIN SHORT WAVES OVER THE REGION IN
THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MONTANA BRINGING COOL
TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS BY SATURDAY WILL DROP TO 5500 TO 6000
FEET AROUND GLACIER PARK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE ALONG THE HIGH-LINE DUE TO LOW AND COLD
FRONT. MEIER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ROTATING THE CORE OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS SPLIT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY TUESDAY...WITH THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST AND A CUTOFF LOW
FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
AFFECT MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
ABOUT HOW MUCH CYCLONIC CURVATURE THIS FLOW WILL HAVE. FOR NOW THE
GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS LOOKS GOOD. MPJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF TT 042/057 037/055 035 12664
EBBBB 049/033 052/035 058/037 062/040 066 54433222220
CTB TR 040/052 032/048 030 12776
EBBBB 043/030 047/032 056/036 061/039 064 64433332220
HLN TT 044/064 042/060 039 12553
EEBBB 054/037 056/039 061/042 063/044 067 54433332221
BZN EE 038/062 040/058 037 12443
EBBBB 056/033 057/034 058/035 060/037 064 34433222220
WEY EE 032/059 032/052 030 12344
BBBBB 048/028 049/026 050/027 050/027 052 44423223330
DLN EE 039/063 038/059 037 12343
EEBBB 055/033 057/035 060/037 062/038 064 34433222221
HVR TR 044/057 038/053 037 12664
EBBBB 046/033 054/037 060/040 064/042 068 53333222220
LWT TE 041/057 038/053 035 12554
EEEEB 047/032 049/033 055/035 059/038 063 44433222220
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&Hazardous weather outlook, May 20, 5:10 AM MDT, 9 hours 21 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 510 AM MDT THU MAY 20 2004 MTZ008>015-044>055-211110- BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE- CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-TOOLE- LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT- EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER- GALLATIN- 510 AM MDT THU MAY 20 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA .DAY ONE...TODAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.