Tornado Warning 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1049 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

HURRICANE CHARLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH UP ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST THIS MORNING. LATEST COORD WITH TPC SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK WITH CHARLEY FORECASTED TO AFFECT THE
TAMPA BAY AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ONGOING
ZONES LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...SO NO MORNING UPDATES PLANNED. WILL UPDATE
THE COASTAL MARINE FORECAST SHORTLY WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS EXPECTED.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
 60NM INCLUDING THE COUNTIES OF LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...
 PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...
 DESOTO...AND LEE.
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR SUMTER...POLK...HARDEE AND
 HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 PM TODAY FOR PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
 MANATEE...HARDEE...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE AND LEE
 COUNTIES.
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...
 HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...
 SARASOTA...HARDEE...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE
 COUNTIES

SHORT TERM...JCM
LONG TERM...RD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
634 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131520-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
634 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

...HURRICANE CHARLEY HEADED FOR THE SUNCOAST TODAY...

...HURRICANE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE
RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL THIS EVENING.

THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE WIND DAMAGE...AS WELL AS
STORM SURGE OVER AND SOUTH OF WHERE CHARLEY MAKES LANDFALL.  HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING REMAIN A SECONDARY HAZARD...BUT THE SPEED OF THE
STORM SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF HEAVY RAINS ON THE
SUNCOAST.

...EXPECTED WIND HAZARDS...
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UP THE COAST BY THIS
EVENING.  SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
VERY NEAR WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE WIND DAMAGE IS A REAL POSSIBILITY WITH
THIS STORM...EVEN WELL INLAND.

...STORM SURGE...
THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAPID RISE
IN WATER LEVELS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
LAND.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE EXACTLY THE CENTER WILL
CROSS...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE STORM TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO
THE COAST BEFORE SWINGING INLAND.

...HEAVY RAINS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SUNCOAST...ANY ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
COULD EXACERBATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON RAIN SWOLLEN RIVERS AND LOW
LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM
STRONGER CELLS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AS CHARLEY SWEEPS UP THE SUNCOAST.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION...CHECK OUT
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
751 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-853-856-122100-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-
POLK-SARASOTA-
751 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 749 IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR
HILLSBOROUGH...SARASOTA...POLK...HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...DE SOTO...
PINELLAS...LEE...CHARLOTTE AND MANATEE COUNTIES.

APPROACHING HURRICANE CHARLEY IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR...WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BANDS OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SMALL FAST MOVING
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JCM