Tornado Warning 43, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
810 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

.UPDATE...HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC TO ISSUE A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE FA. LOTS OF ROTATION SEEN IN THE FRINGE BAND OF FRANCES FROM
WRN LEE COUNTY TO SE POLK. THE ROTATIONS ARE MOVING VERY FAST AND
ARE SHORTLIVED...SO SOME TORNADOES MAY DROP DOWN WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCLUDE THE WATCH INFORMATION. ALSO USED
THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE RAIN AND CLOUDS CATEGORICAL TODAY TILL 18Z
FOR ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND THEN ONLY HAD CATEGORICAL RAIN
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH AFT 18Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW

.UPDATE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
SURF OF 4 TO 7 FEET TODAY ALONG WITH THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

ALSO...THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED
FOR POLK...HARDEE...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. WILL KEEP SUMTER COUNTY
UP UNTIL NOON TODAY AS THE FEEDER BANDS MOVING THROUGH THE TAMPA
BAY AREA COULD STILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS UP THERE LATER
THIS MORNING.

FINALLY...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR LEVY COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2
PM. WILL UPDATE ZONES WITH NEW INFORMATION SHORTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS WITH UPDATED WATCH/WARNING SECTION

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...FIRST PERIOD STILL DOMINATED BY
CIRCULATION OF FRANCES. SEE LATEST TPC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST
UPDATES. WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE FORECASTS AS SOON AS NEW DATA COME
IN. VWP HAS WINDS 50 TO 60 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WHICH IS
PARTIALLY COMING DOWN IN GUSTS AS THE FEEDER BANDS COME IN. SEVERAL
COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING JUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW COMING OVER US WILL CONTINUE TO PULL IN
MOISTURE ALONG FEEDER BANDS AS IT IS DOING NOW. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LOOKS GOOD AS STILL CANNOT PREDICT
EXACT LOCATION OF BANDING. AS OF NOW...THE INLAND PARTS OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA HAVE HAD THE MOST RAIN WITH SOME ISOLD PARTS OF ERN
HILLSBOROUGH AND WRN POLK GETTING AROUND 6 INCHES DURING THE STORM
SO FAR. AS EXPECTED...THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR THE RIVERS SO STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATED RIVER FLOOD FORECASTS.

BEYOND LABOR DAY...THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME SRLY WITH DECREASING
SPEEDS. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN EACH DAY AND TRIMMED POPS FOR THE
INTERIOR...AS RAIN WILL HAVE DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT ALL THE WAY
INLAND.

MADE MINOR TWEAKS DOWN TO TEMPS UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...TRAILING TROUGH AXIS FROM FRANCES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY.  DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE DEEPER
MOISTURE DROPS OFF SOME AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 42036 HAS WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 15 TO 20 FOOT RANGE AND
STEADILY RISING. AS FRANCES MOVES ASHORE IN THE PANHANDLE EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO QUICKLY DROP...BUT STAY AT LEAST IN SCEC RANGE
THRU TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSIONS WILL STAY HI FOR ONE MORE DAY. AFTER
THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH WITH A STEADY SRLY FLOW FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 77 90 77 / 70 50 50 20
FMY 88 77 90 76 / 70 50 50 20
GIF 89 76 90 74 / 70 50 40 20
SRQ 88 78 89 77 / 70 50 50 20
BKV 87 76 89 74 / 70 70 60 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 HURRICANE WARNING FOR HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS...PASCO...HERNANDO...
  CITRUS...AND LEVY COUNTIES.
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MANATEE AND SARASOTA COUNTIES.
 HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.
 FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF FORECAST AREA.
 INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 12 PM FOR SUMTER COUNTY.
 TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM FOR ALL COUNTIES.

&&

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...PRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
546 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

FLZ039-061530-
LEVY-
546 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LEVY COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF TORNADOES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FEEDER BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FRANCES. SMALL
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 2 PM. TREES...POWER LINES...AND POORLY
CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS WILL BE MOST AT RISK.

WINDS COULD ALSO GUST UP TO 60 MPH IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME OF THE
SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING AROUND TROPICAL STORM FRANCES. ALONG THE
COAST...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. AVOID GOING OUT INTO THE WATER TODAY.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF ROADWAYS. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL TONIGHT. REMEMBER...WHEN YOU SEE WATER
RUSHING ACROSS A ROAD...OR YOU CANNOT SEE HOW DEEP THE WATER
IS...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE MAIN CAUSE OF DEATHS FROM
HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS IS INLAND FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

FLZ042-043-048>051-055-060-061530-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
546 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NATURE COAST AND WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...WINDS AND RAINS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL STORM FRANCES...

SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. WINDS COULD ALSO GUST UP TO 60 MPH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SOME OF THESE BANDS. ALONG THE COAST...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH
SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. AVOID GOING OUT INTO THE WATER
TODAY.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF ROADWAYS. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. REMEMBER...WHEN YOU SEE
WATER RUSHING ACROSS A ROAD...OR YOU CANNOT SEE HOW DEEP THE WATER
IS...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE MAIN CAUSE OF DEATHS FROM
HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS IS INLAND FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

FLZ052-056-057-061-061530-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK-
546 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...WINDS AND RAINS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL STORM FRANCES...

SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. WINDS COULD ALSO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SOME OF THESE BANDS. ALONG THE COAST...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH
SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. AVOID GOING OUT INTO THE WATER
TODAY.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF ROADWAYS. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. REMEMBER...WHEN YOU SEE
WATER RUSHING ACROSS A ROAD...OR YOU CANNOT SEE HOW DEEP THE WATER
IS...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE MAIN CAUSE OF DEATHS FROM
HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS IS INLAND FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

FLZ062-065-061530-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
546 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...WINDS AND RAINS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL STORM FRANCES...

SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. WINDS COULD ALSO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SOME OF THESE BANDS. ALONG THE COAST...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH
SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. AVOID GOING OUT INTO THE WATER
TODAY.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF ROADWAYS. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. REMEMBER...WHEN YOU SEE
WATER RUSHING ACROSS A ROAD...OR YOU CANNOT SEE HOW DEEP THE WATER
IS...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE MAIN CAUSE OF DEATHS FROM
HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS IS INLAND FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
517 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

FLZ039-061800-
LEVY-
517 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER #803 IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR
LEVY COUNTIES.

AS TROPICAL STORM FRANCES MOVES WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST GULF...THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LEVY
COUNTY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
627 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

FLZ052-056-057-061-062-065-061230-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEE-POLK-
627 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT
POLK...HARDEE...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES...
OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS WILL CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY ROTATE OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
THESE BANDS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TORNADOS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
BANDS. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY
WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

DAVIS