Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
325 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2004

.CURRENTLY...LOOKS LIKE ONE LAST MCS (PHEW) BEFORE THINGS BRIEFLY
QUIET DOWN.  MAIN ACTIVITY WITH THIS ONE EXTENDS FROM THE KEYS
THROUGH EXTREME S FL...BUT SOME OF THE GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE GETTING
RATHER CLOSE TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE MARINE ZONES.  OTHER
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE IN PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ZONE...AND
DESPITE FAIRLY STABLE AIR MASS THE INFLOW IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS
SHOWN BY DOPPLER RADAR PROFILES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURS)...ALL THE CONVECTIVE ACTION WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THROUGH MID MORNING AS TROUGH...AND FRONT SOON AFTER...
SWEEP ACROSS THE SUNCOAST.  THE BIG STORY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE...
IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER:  WIND...SURF/SEAS...AND CHILL.  SOME OF US...
PARTICULARLY THE SUNCOAST S OF TAMPA BAY...EXPERIENCED QUITE A
ROLLER-COASTER OF MESOSCALE WINDS ON MONDAY...AND TODAY THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL FEEL SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS BY AFTERNOON.

EVENT LOOKS TO BE SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA (31 TO 39 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) BUT CERTAINLY WINDY (20 TO 25 AND GUSTY)
LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET.  HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR POSSIBLE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY SHOULD OBSERVED(SOUNDERS) AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST FREQUENT 30-35 MPH GUSTS INLAND.

SECONDLY...SURF/SEAS.  VALUES ALREADY ABOVE 8 FEET AT MOST OFFSHORE
BUOYS...AND GIVEN IMPRESSIVE THICKNESS/850 TEMP FALLS AND MEAN
MIXING LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD
OFFSHORE ABOVE 12 FEET BY AFTN.  GFS-BASED WAVE WATCH MODEL POPPING
15 FT SEAS OFFSHORE BY 00Z...AND THIS MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF.  FOR
THIS REASON AND GIVEN THE HISTORY OF THIS WINTER/SPRING...WILL HOIST
RARE (FOR APRIL) HIGH SURF ADZY FOR THE BARRIER BEACHES LATE THIS
AFTN THROUGH (FOR NOW) MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...CHILL.  IS IT REALLY MID-APRIL??  NOT IF YOU LOOK AT THE
DATA.  500 MB HEIGHTS FCST TO DROP BELOW 5640M EARLY WED...AND 850
TEMPS WILL DROP TO 0 TO +2 N/CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT AND HOLD WED.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S FROM SARASOTA N...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN UNUSUALLY DEEP VORTEX FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.  CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW PREFERRED LOCATIONS
TO GET RATHER COLD WED NIGHT.  BY THURS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME REBOUND IN TEMPS...BUT STILL SOME 7-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-MON)...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND
PUSHES ENE ACROSS THE STATE TO OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL BY MONDAY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTERNOONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FLOW SLOWLY VEERS FROM NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTION FOR SPIKES REQUIRING WARNINGS THIS MORNING.  TIDES HAVE
CALMED DOWN SINCE YESTERDAYS 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL SPIKE WITH THE
GRAVITY WAVE.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT TWO SOLID DAYS OF ADVISORY CONDS
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE SYNOPTIC GUSTS LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CRANK TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING DECENT DISPERSION.  OTHERWISE...NO RH PROBLEMS TODAY BUT
EXPECT RH TO REACH OF JUST EXCEED CRITERIA WED IN SOME AREAS...WHICH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WIND.  FOR NOW...GRIDS
ARE ADVERTISING THE LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER (NW WIND FLOW) AREA...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOUTHWARD EXTENSION INTO CENTRAL ZONES AS
FCST RH JUST A HAIR ABOVE CRITERIA.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 072 053 068 051 / 40 00 00 00
FMY 076 056 073 052 / 60 00 00 00
GIF 076 052 069 049 / 40 00 00 00
SRQ 071 054 069 051 / 40 00 00 00
BKV 072 048 067 041 / 30 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH TO
   LEE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER INCLUDING
   TAMPA BAY
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LEVY...CITRUS...AND
   SUMTER COUNTIES.

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....JLC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
458 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2004

FLZ039-042-048>051-055-060-131100-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA-
458 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2004

...MORE UNUSUAL WIND GUSTS HEADED FOR THE SUNCOAST THIS MORNING...

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COAST FROM CITRUS COUNTY THROUGH SARASOTA COUNTY BETWEEN 515 AND 6
AM.  WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW FROM A
MASSIVE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL
GUST PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH BEFORE DAYBREAK IN SOME AREAS.

EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO PULSING WIND GUSTS WHICH
COULD BLOW LIGHTWEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD.  IF YOU
ARE UNSURE...DO NOT DRIVE UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

MARINERS...ESPECIALLY SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS...ARE URGED TO POSTPONE
TRIPS TODAY AS THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS
AND CONFUSED SEAS WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS.  SEAS WILL BUILD EVERYWHERE
LATER TODAY AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS WEATHER WARNINGS.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG