Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
159 PM EDT FRI APR 30 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY)...UPPER RIDGE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FA WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DROPS INTO THE MID-WEST
AND THE GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA...OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO MORE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS FLOW MAINTAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOONS. TEMPS TO
STAY ON THE WARM SIDE BUT ONLY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE
CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT
PATTERN BETTER.

.EXTENDED (SUNDAY NGT THRU FRI)...MODELS STILL HANDLING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK VERY POORLY WITH THE GFS FLIP-FLOPPING EACH
MODEL RUN ON THE DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A GULF LOW AND THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT/CLEARING BEHIND IT. LATEST 12Z RUN IS AGGRESSIVE
WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT PREVIOUS TWO RUNS HAD THE FRONT
WASHING OUT ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH DELAYED PRECIP AND CLEARING AS WELL
AS A WELL DEVELOPED SFC GULF LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
WITH THIS GREAT UNCERTAINTY...EXTENDED SMALL RAIN CHANCES INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR WED MORNING. MIN TEMPS STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAXES NEAR NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER RIDGING BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A GRADIENT LIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOME NEAR SHORE SEA BREEZES SAT. BUT
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT FRONT MOVING
INTO THE GULF...TO KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WINDS INCREASE MON
TO NEAR SCEC SPEEDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES BY EARLY
TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SE U.S. DURING MID WEEK WITH WINDS
VEERING FROM NW BEHIND THE FRONT TO NE BY WED.
.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA
AND COULD PUSH RH VALUES DOWN TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 85 70 86 / 20 40 20 30
FMY 68 87 69 87 / 20 40 20 30
GIF 68 87 68 87 / 20 40 20 30
SRQ 68 85 68 85 / 20 40 20 30
BKV 67 85 65 86 / 20 40 20 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RUDE
LONG TERM...COLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT FRI APR 30 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-301500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
530 AM EDT FRI APR 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. IF HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR
LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
507 PM EDT FRI APR 30 2004

FLZ052-302130-
POLK-
507 PM EDT FRI APR 30 2004

...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUING NEAR WINTER HAVEN ALONG HIGHWAY 17
AREA...
A THUNDERSTORM...DRIFTING NORTH AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT WINTER HAVEN
AND CYPRESS GARDENS...UNTIL 530 PM EDT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

GOLDSMITH