Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
205 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-MON)...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH BEST DYNAMICS AND LIFT
MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AND NORTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING.  FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES AWAY
WITH MAIN EFFECT BEING A WIND SHIFT BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR
SPREADS BACK DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY
FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S.  MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE REGION QUICKLY VEERING WINDS AROUND TO THE
EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COOLER GULF WATERS SUNDAY AND A SEA BREEZE
MONDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES LOWER.  LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL COAST AND
SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM (MON NGT-SAT)...MID AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
GULF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL AND A NORTHEAST BECOMING EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THAT IS WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER RIDGING SHIFT SOUTHWARD...IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISS. RIVER VALLEY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHING SOUTH TO THE GULF. THIS COMPLEX PUSHES
EAST WITH THE FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CWFA THU WITH TEMPS IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK CLOSER TO CLIMO. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND 20 PERCENT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT VEER TO NW AND N AND MAY
BRIEFLY REACH SCEC LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FRI AND THEN SLIDES EAST...WITH NE
WINDS BECOMING SE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE FROM
THURSDAY FRONT WORKING NORTHWARD OVER THE CWFA ALONG WITH A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SAT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY VEER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS STARTING OUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EARLY TONIGHT...NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND THEN EAST ON MONDAY.  SOUTHEAST FLOW TUESDAY WILL BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THEN BACK TO
NORTH BEHIND FRONT ON THURSDAY.  NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
PERIOD AS WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS AS RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA 65 78 55 80 / 30 00 00 00
FMY 66 82 58 82 / 30 00 00 00
GIF 64 81 54 81 / 30 00 00 00
SRQ 65 77 55 80 / 30 00 00 00
BKV 56 78 46 80 / 40 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM...RKR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
522 AM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-271630-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
522 AM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
304 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

FLZ039-272100-
LEVY-
304 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

...STRONG WINDS MAY AFFECT LEVY COUNTY THROUGH 4 PM...
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH...WILL AFFECT
YANKEETOWN AND LEBANON...UNTIL 400 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
MAY OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

PETRO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
350 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

FLZ042-272145-
CITRUS-
350 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CITRUS COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH...WILL AFFECT CRYSTAL
RIVER AND BEVERLY HILLS...UNTIL 445 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH
MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS
AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PETRO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
351 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

FLZ039-272145-
LEVY-
351 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2004

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT LEVY COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING EAST AT AROUND 50 MPH...WILL AFFECT CEDAR
KEY...OTTER CREEK...LEBANON AND WILLISTON...UNTIL 445 PM EST. GUSTY
WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED.

SHARP