Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

August 31, 2004Manatee County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 31, 2004, 6:14 PM EDT for Manatee County, Florida. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 31, 2004, 6:14 PM EDT (22:14 UTC)
Expired
Aug 31, 2004, 6:45 PM EDT
In force
31 min
Issued by
NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Manatee County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 42 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2004-08-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1115 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2004-08-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 2 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1115 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-45 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1052 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KTBW 312214
SVRTBW
FLC081-312245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
613 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 613 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ON THE
  HARDEE AND MANATEE COUNTY BORDER JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64...MOVING
  WEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...
  MYAKKA HEAD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER...AND
HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.


&&

LAT...LON 2737 8205 2753 8205 2749 8225 2734 8222

$$

69

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 31, 1:49 PM EDT, 4 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 1:49 PM EDT, 4 hours 25 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
149 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...AXIS OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTH END OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
TO NORTHERN FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING POPS IN THE LOW TO MID SCATTERED
RANGE WITH TIMING FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING AND MAX TEMPS
ABOVE CLIMO BUT BELOW THE FAVORED ETA MOS GUIDANCE. MINS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND CLIMO. MOSTLY EAST WINDS BUT WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WED. WINDS WILL BACK TO NE AND INCREASE THU AS THE RIDGE
MOVES BY AND FRANCES APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL WEEK...THE
MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH HURRICANE FRANCES
WILL DOMINATE THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. CURRENT TPC TRACK AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CENTER WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC...HEADED IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST. THAT WOULD PROVIDE THE FA WITH PERIPHERAL EFFECTS...GIVING
BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE STORM MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO THE APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
AROUND AS AN UPPER TROF HANGS TO OUR WEST OVER THE WESTERN GOMEX.

&&

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THU AS WINDS BACK AND INCREASE...
ALTHOUGH WIND/SEAS HIGHER FROM TSTM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR OR AT SCEC FRI.

IF CURRENT TRACK HOLDS TRUE FOR FRANCES...MARINERS WILL
HAVE A TOUGH GO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EVEN IF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET...SEAS WILL BE ROUGH AND SCA ADVISORIES
WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 91 76 91 / 20 40 20 30
FMY 75 92 74 92 / 20 40 20 30
GIF 75 93 74 92 / 20 40 20 30
SRQ 75 91 74 91 / 20 40 20 30
BKV 71 91 71 91 / 20 40 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RKR
LONG TERM...FWA
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 31, 5:34 AM EDT, 12 hours 40 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
534 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-311230-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
534 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS. HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE FRIDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY ADVISED OF
THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS FRANCES APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 31, 4:11 PM EDT, 2 hours 3 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
411 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

FLZ051-312100-
HILLSBOROUGH-
411 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TAMPA...
A NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST PARK...TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...CARROLLWOOD AND TAMPA...UNTIL 500 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

CLOSE
Special weather statement, Aug 31, 5:20 PM EDT, 54 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
520 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

FLZ065-312200-
LEE-
520 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LEE COUNTY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST...WILL AFFECT
ESTERO...BONITA SPRINGS AND FORT MYERS BEACH...UNTIL 600 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

CLOSE
Special weather statement, Aug 31, 5:39 PM EDT, 35 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
539 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

FLZ050-051-312215-
HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-
539 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST HILLSBOROUGH AND
NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTIES...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH AND WILL AFFECT
CITRUS PARK AND OLDSMAR...UNTIL 615 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

CLOSE
Special weather statement, Aug 31, 6:07 PM EDT, 7 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
607 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

FLZ062-312245-
CHARLOTTE-
607 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY...
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT AREAS SOUTH
AND WEST OF PUNTA GORDA...UNTIL 645 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

CLOSE

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.