Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WED)...AT LAST...WE CAN BREATHE A BIT EASIER
WX WISE.  WITH LARGE RIDGE LOCKED OVER THE SUNSHINE STATE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT PLENTY OF MORNING/EARLY AFTN SUNSHINE
FOLLOWED BY SCT AFTN/EARLY EVE TSTMS WITH PCPN CHANCES AND COVERAGE
A BIT BELOW CLIMO. MAY SEE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY N OF TAMPA BAY...BUT WITH MORE HEATING AND SOMEWHAT
LOWER MID AFTN DWPTS TODAY AS WELL AS LESS RAINFALL EXPECT ONLY
TYPICAL FIELD FOG WHICH WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE COMMON AS WE GET
LATER INTO SUMMER. TEMPS WILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT - MON)...WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND THEN UPPER TROF DIGS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SFC RIDGE BEGINS NORTH OF THE AREA THEN SINKS SOUTH
LATER IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP WEAK FLOW SCT DIURNAL POPS ON THE
SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THRU THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS
AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE...THROUGH WED...LIGHT E WINDS WITH ONSHORE SEA BREEZES EACH
DAY.  TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...SLIGHTLY STRONGER ESE FLOW MAY
PIN THE SEA BREEZE TO THE COAST...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TEXT WORDING
FOR NOW.  PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS WITH LIGHT WINDS KEEPING DISPERSION
DOWN AND LOWEST RH IN POCKETS DOWN TO 45 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 076 091 076 091 / 20 40 20 40
FMY 075 092 075 092 / 20 40 20 40
GIF 075 092 075 092 / 20 40 20 40
SRQ 074 090 074 090 / 20 40 20 40
BKV 072 091 072 091 / 20 40 20 40

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

.SHORT TERM...BSG
.LONG TERM....RD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-161430-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
530 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE SEA BREEZES.  THE STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS
LIGHT SO STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH...WITH SOME ALREADY IN FLOOD OR AT CAUTION STAGE.  THE
GROUND IS SATURATED IN MANY AREAS...AND ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL RUNOFF
QUICKLY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR MINOR FRESHWATER FLOODING AS
WELL AS PUSHING SWELLING RIVERS TOWARD OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS.  IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

FOR RIVER FLOOD INFORMATION...CHECK OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGICAL
PREDICTION PAGE AT

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?TBW

PRC