Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
135 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...A TUTT LIKE FEATURE
TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA AS A H5 CENTER MOVES ALONG THE GULF
COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH
FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A
MOIST/ PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.8-2.2 IN/ NORTHERLY...BUT BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY...MID AND UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH FL TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN SOME
OVER SOUTH FL OR THE STRAITS THROUGH TUE AS A SURFACE BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF...PROVIDING A GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE CWFA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL KEEP POPS SCATTERED IN
THE RANGE OF 40 TO 50 % WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE BEGINNING TIME
FROM AFTERNOON TO LATE MORNING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH REACHING NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AND THEN BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS WILL SETUP A DEEP WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF MOIST AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DECENT
RAINFALL ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT APPEARS THAT BEST
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS
AT THIS TIME.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMUMS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO
WINDS OFF GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.MARINE...OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS NO PROBLEMS AS SOME WHAT
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT 10KTS OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TPA 77 89 77 89 / 30 50 30 50
FMY 74 90 74 91 / 30 50 30 50
GIF 75 92 75 92 / 20 50 30 50
SRQ 75 89 75 89 / 30 40 20 40
BKV 73 90 73 90 / 30 50 30 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM RKR
LONG TERM  PRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
532 AM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-111600-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
532 AM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
TREES...POWER LINES...AND POORLY CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS WILL BE MOST
AT RISK.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  SOME MAY BECOME STRONG.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
210 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W SANIBEL             26.44N 82.13W
07/10/2004                   LEE                FL   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            TWO LARGE TREES DOWN WITHIN DING DARLING NATIONAL
            WILDLIFE REFUGE.

0700 PM     HAIL             2 W SANIBEL             26.44N 82.13W
07/10/2004  0.75 INCH        LEE                FL   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITHIN DING DARLING NATIONAL
            WILDLIFE REFUGE.

&&

RFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FLZ051-112030-
HILLSBOROUGH-
345 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

...THESE STORMS ARE DRIFTING SOUTH AT 5 MPH AND WILL AFFECT PALM
RIVER...CLAIR MEL...AND GIBSONTON...UNTIL 430 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

SHARP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
414 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FLZ055-112100-
MANATEE-
414 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST SARASOTA AND CENTRAL
MANATEE COUNTIES...

...THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH...AND WILL AFFECT
AREAS WEST OF MYAKKA CITY...UNTIL 500 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50
MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE
LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

SHARP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
418 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FLZ052-112100-
POLK-
418 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL POLK COUNTY...

...GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH OVER
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAKE
ALFRED...HAINES CITY...WINTER HAVEN AND INWOOD...UNTIL 500 PM EDT.
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SHARP