Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Tampa Bay, FL
NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 10, 2004, 6:39 PM EDT for Lee County, Florida. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 2004, 6:39 PM EDT (22:39 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 2004, 7:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 36 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tampa Bay, FL
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Lee County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 41 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -212 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1606 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 17 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -5 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS52 KTBW 102239 SVRTBW FLC071-102315- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 639 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 715 PM EDT * AT 639 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...OVER EASTERN SANIBEL...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT... SANIBEL. CAPTIVA. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...MAINLY TO TREES AND POWER LINES. POORLY ANCHORED ROOFS...MOBILE HOMES...AND SHEDS ARE ALSO AT RISK. GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY. PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE INTO A STURDY BUILDING. && LAT...LON 2637 8197 2655 8198 2655 8232 2633 8230 $$ 55
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 10, 1:15 PM EDT, 5 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 1:15 PM EDT, 5 hours 24 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 115 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...H5 RIDGE ACROSS FL AND GA TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE WEST SUN AND MON...ALLOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE CWFA FROM THE EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL BRING POPS BACK UP 40-50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOONS AND THEN TAPERING DOWN IN THE EARLY EVENINGS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ON GULF WATERS WHERE AT LEAST ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER DURING THE OVER NIGHT HOURS. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES AWAY...TROUGHINESS SETTLES ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING FROM NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT TO CENTRAL FL SUNDAY AND INTO THE SOUTH MON. WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY...WHICH WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL TEND TO KEEP THE HIGHER AFTERNOON POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALSO PROVIDE SOME LOW ODDS OF PCPN IN THE NORTH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE CLIMO SUN-MON..ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM (MON NGT-SAT)...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD WITH WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ADJUST THE TIMING OF CONVECTION TO MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST THEN SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY. STILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SOME PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT EXACT AREA AND DETAILS STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AS EACH MODEL RUN SHIFTS THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AND OTHER FEATURES. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL... EXCEPT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL MINIMUMS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. && .MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS SHIFT THROUGH VARIABLE TO WESTERLY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER...AFTER TODAY THE MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 91 77 90 / 20 50 30 50 FMY 75 93 74 91 / 20 50 30 50 GIF 75 93 75 93 / 20 50 20 50 SRQ 75 90 75 90 / 20 50 30 40 BKV 71 92 73 91 / 20 50 30 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...RKR LONG TERM...PRC
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 5:37 AM EDT, 13 hours 2 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 537 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004 FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-101200- CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE- LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER- 537 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY: VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...BEFORE YOU GET THIRSTY. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR EARLY MORNING OR EVENING HOURS. STAY NEAR AIR CONDITIONED LOCATIONS IF POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE FEWER THAN NORMAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE ONES THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND WITH THEM THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WEATHER. BY MIDWEEK RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE AREA MAY EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINS. STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 3:54 PM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 354 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004 FLZ042-048-102045- CITRUS-HERNANDO- 354 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL CITRUS AND NORTH CENTRAL HERNANDO COUNTIES... A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING DRIFTING SOUTHWEST...WILL AFFECT RURAL SOUTHERN CITRUS COUNTY AND RURAL NORTHERN HERNANDO COUNTY...UNTIL 445 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND U S 98...MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL. SHARP
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 3:54 PM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 354 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004 FLZ042-048-102045- CITRUS-HERNANDO- 354 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL CITRUS AND NORTH CENTRAL HERNANDO COUNTIES... A THUNDERSTORM...DRIFTING SOUTHWEST...WILL AFFECT RURAL SOUTHERN CITRUS COUNTY AND RURAL NORTHERN HERNANDO COUNTY...UNTIL 445 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND U.S. 98...MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL. SHARP
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 5:34 PM EDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 534 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004 FLZ060>062-102215- CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-SARASOTA- 534 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CHARLOTTE...SOUTHWEST DESOTO...AND SOUTHEAST SARASOTA COUNTIES... ...THESE THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT PUNTA GORDA...FORT OGDEN...CLEVELAND AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...UNTIL 615 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG I-75 AND U.S. 17...MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL. SHARP
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 6:06 PM EDT, 33 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 606 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004 FLZ065-102245- LEE- 606 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2004 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN LEE COUNTY... ...THESE THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT PINE ISLAND...UNTIL 645 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL. SHARP
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 6:20 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | TBW | 25 min | |
| Jul 10, 6:46 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | TBW | 59 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.