Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE TERM WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO KEEP STEERING
FLOW RELATIVELY LIGHT. AREA OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS
REGION TO TRAVERSE TO THE WEST BUT STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA...SO
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
KEPT SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG
SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR...AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. KEPT TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FCST
WAS DONE. DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN THE CENT
AND NCENT FA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...
MODELS OSCILLATING WITH WHERE TO PLACE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. FOR
NOW...GOING WITH A PLACEMENT OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE FA. THIS WILL
MEAN LIGHT SSE FLOW...BECOMING WSW OVER THE N FA AND COASTAL AREAS OF
THE CENT AND S FA EACH AFTN. HAVE KEPT 40-50% POPS FOR MAINLY AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES KEEPING RHS
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE IF AREA OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVES FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THIS WOULD CAUSE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RHS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES TO DROP BELOW FORECAST VALUES...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL NUMBERS. AFTERNOON TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AND SHIFT NEAR
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 078 091 078 091 / 20 40 20 40
FMY 075 093 075 093 / 20 40 20 50
GIF 075 094 075 094 / 30 50 30 50
SRQ 075 091 075 091 / 20 40 20 40
BKV 072 092 072 092 / 20 40 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...RFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-061400-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
525 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER COASTAL
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INLAND LATER
COLLIDING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN AREAS...THEN TAPER OFF INTO
THE EVENING. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING
STORMS.

RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH TODAYS STORMS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
247 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

FLZ048-049-061930-
HERNANDO-PASCO-
247 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT
MASARYKTOWN AND DARBY...UNTIL 330 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

MCMICHAEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
332 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

FLZ043-048-062015-
HERNANDO-SUMTER-
332 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE MOVMENT...WILL AFFECT RIDGE
MANOR...CROOM...NOBLETON...BUSHNELL AND WEBSTER...UNTIL 415 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MCMICHAEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
433 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

FLZ055-062115-
MANATEE-
433 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT...WILL AFFECT MYAKKA HEAD
AND MYAKKA CITY...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

MCMICHAEL