Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
123 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...SEA BREEZE BEGINNING PRETTY MUCH ON
SCHEDULE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN
PINELLAS...HERNANDO...AND CITRUS COUNTIES. EARLIER ACTIVITY OVER
THE WATER AND INLAND LEVY COUNTY HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALREADY CLEAR INTO MARION COUNTY.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS DEFINITELY VEERED AROUND SOME FROM THIS MORNING
AS SFC RIDGE AXIS IS BEGINNING TO SLIDE SOUTH AS ADVERTISED IN MOST
OF THE COMPUTER GUIDANCE. THIS WILL FAVOR INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY NORTH...THEN TREND BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST AS YOU GO SOUTH.

AFTER TODAY...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOR DO THEY HAVE GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS THINKING OF RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. IN
ADDITION...THE MESOETA IS PAINTING POPS TO BE NEAR OR EVEN A BIT
BELOW CLIMO WHILE THE GFS NEARLY DOUBLES THAT. PREVIOUS RUNS IN THE
GFS WERE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE POPS...AND THE 40/50 SPLIT BETWEEN
COASTAL AND INLAND POPS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT INDECISIVE
ON WHERE TO PLACE THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BEGIN
OVER THE S FA THURS...POSSIBLY BACK TOWARD THE CENT FA FRI THROUGH
SUN...THEN BACK TOWARD THE S FA BY MON. NO MATTER WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP...MODELS SHOW VERY LIGHT FLOW...DOMINATED BY AFTN
SEA BREEZES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 40-50% POPS...WITH A HIGHER BIAS
INLAND MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...CONTINUED MORE OF THE SAME WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT
TREND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE. NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 92 77 91/ 20 40 20 40
FMY 75 92 75 92/ 30 50 30 50
GIF 75 94 75 93/ 30 50 30 50
SRQ 75 91 75 90/ 20 40 20 40
BKV 72 92 72 91/ 20 40 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM.....JILLSON
LONG TERM......MORALES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
545 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-051400-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
545 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INLAND LATER
COLLIDING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR AREAS...THEN TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING.
WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS.

RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH TODAYS STORMS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
231 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

FLZ051-051915-
HILLSBOROUGH-
231 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT WEST
PARK...TOWN N COUNTRY...TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND
CARROLLWOOD...UNTIL 315 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MCMICHAEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
235 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

FLZ050-051915-
PINELLAS-
235 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT SAFETY
HARBOR...PALM HARBOR AND OLDSMAR...UNTIL 315 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

MCMICHAEL