Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2004

CORRECTED TO ADD WARNING...WATCH...ADVISORY LINE

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...A BIT OF A SLOW START TO THE CONVECTION
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS IS A BIT SURPRISING CONSIDERING
THE AMPLE MOISTURE BELOW 500MB AND STRONG HEATING. THE 12Z TAMPA
SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AT AROUND 83 DEGREES...
YET WE ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO GET THE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EVEN
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.

ITS A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY IN LEVY COUNTY...WHERE EARLIER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW IS AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. FARTHER
SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA WILL BE INTERSECTING THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COVERAGE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FROM FORT MYERS NORTHWARD TO ABOUT SARASOTA.

NOW FOR THE FUTURE...CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TODAY WITH LOTS OF BOUNDARY INTERACTION...THEN A GRADUAL DECREASE
WITH MOST PLACES DRY BY 10PM OR SO. THE HOLIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT I STILL EXPECT BEST COVERAGE TO BE INLAND
WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS IN LIGHT WIND REGIME. FOR RESIDENTS
ALONG THE HIGHLY POPULATED WEST COASTAL COMMUNITIES...IT APPEARS AT
THIS TIME THAT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH WILL BE
AROUND 30 PERCENT.

EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
SYNOPTICALLY. THE MESOETA SEEMS TO DRIVE THE RIDGE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH ALLOWING A BIT MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL OPT TO LEAVE CONTINUITY IN PLACE SINCE THERE ISNT MUCH RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS
STARTS OFF OVER THE CENT AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY SAGS A
LITTLE SOUTH FOR WED AND THURS AS A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. THUS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK FOR TUES...
THEN LIGHT WESTERLY MUCH OF THE AREA FOR WED AND THURS. BY FRI AND
SAT...THE RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO MIGRATE BACK NORTHWARD AGAIN...WITH A
RETURN TO LOW LEVEL ESE FLOW. HAVE STUCK WITH 40-50% AFTN/EVENING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT IF FLOW BECOMES MORE ESE BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THE TIMING SHOULD BE DEFINITIVELY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH A HIGHER BIAS FOR PRECIP TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE SO NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 90 75 91/ 30 60 30 50
FMY 74 91 75 92/ 30 60 30 50
GIF 75 92 75 94/ 30 60 30 50
SRQ 74 90 74 91/ 30 60 30 40
BKV 71 91 71 92/ 30 60 30 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JILLSON
LONG TERM...MORALES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
515 AM EDT SAT JUL 3 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-031400-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
515 AM EDT SAT JUL 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE BAY AREA AND NATURE COAST THIS MORNING. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL INITIATE ADDITIONAL
STORMS THAT WILL LATER COLLIDE WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THEN TAPER OFF INTO THE
EVENING. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS.

RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH TODAYS STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
206 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2004

FLZ050-031845-
PINELLAS-
206 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT
SEMINOLE...PINELLAS PARK...MADEIRA BEACH AND LARGO...UNTIL 245 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MCMICHAEL