Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Tampa Bay, FL
NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2004, 3:54 PM EDT for Polk County, Florida. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 2, 2004, 3:54 PM EDT (19:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 2, 2004, 4:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 36 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tampa Bay, FL
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Polk County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1781 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -36 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 814 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 25 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 18 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS52 KTBW 021954 SVRTBW FLC105-022030- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 430 PM EDT * AT 354 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL...OVER LAKELAND. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT... GIBSONIA. POLK CITY. MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL... TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. && LAT...LON 2821 8203 2801 8204 2798 8185 2820 8181 $$ 57
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 1:01 PM EDT, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 1:01 PM EDT, 2 hours 53 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 101 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND IN FACT...SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG BY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THEN PUSH INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH RESPECT TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH SUCH LIGHT STEERING FLOW...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHICH AREAS HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT GETTING WET. USUALLY...WITH LIGHT FLOW...BOUNDARIES FROM BOTH SEA BREEZE FRONTS EVENTUALLY CONVERGE IN THE INTERIOR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER POPS THERE. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW MORE PREDOMINANT TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT CONVECTION TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THERE AS WELL...SO WILL HAVE 50 POPS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-FRI)...ITS GETTING CLOSER TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...AND STILL THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN IS PROVIDING LITTLE HELP FOR EVENING PLANNING. GFS IS HINTING AT WEAK SE FLOW AFTER DARK WHICH WOULD TEND TO EASE WHATEVER STORMS ARE ACTIVE BACK TO THE COAST...BUT ETA SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO FLOW. LIGHTNING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST BEST EVENING LIGHTNING WOULD STRETCH FROM INTERIOR COASTAL/WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES STRAIGHT S TO THE LEE COUNTY METRO AREAS...BUT OTHER FACTORS (SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING) CAN CHANGE INITIAL STORM GENERATION. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO 30 PERCENT THROUGH FIREWORKS TIME...AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS ADJUST. OTHERWISE...SAME STUFF DIFFERENT DAY(S) RIGHT THROUGH WED...AND LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHT FLOW MAY HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY AS...NOT ALL THAT SURPRISING...THE ACTIVE JET HOLDS ACROSS THE MID LATITUDES. BY FRIDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEEPER E FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BUT WOULD NOT WRITE IT IN STONE JUST YET. SO...MORE EARLY AFTERNOON WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INDUCED STORMS BECOMING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND PCPN COVERAGE A HAIR BELOW NORMAL AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. && .MARINE...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AS LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS CONTINUE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...BUT THE STRONGEST WOULD BE IN THE LATE EVENINGS AS LOCAL LAND BREEZES SET UP JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE SLOWLY WEST. && .FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE SO NO HIGHLIGHTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 90 76 91/ 30 50 30 40 FMY 74 91 74 92/ 30 50 30 50 GIF 74 92 74 93/ 30 50 30 50 SRQ 74 90 74 90/ 30 40 40 40 BKV 71 90 71 91/ 30 50 30 50 && SHORT TERM...JILLSON LONG TERM....BSG
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 5:10 AM EDT, 10 hours 44 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 510 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004 FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-021415- CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE- LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER- 510 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE STARTING AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INTO OUR AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP INTO THE LATE EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE TODAY IN THE AREA WHERE THE SEA BREEZES MEET...EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THE STEERING FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY LIGHT...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH TODAYS STORMS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR UPDATES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF STRONG STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE) RJS
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 2, 2:43 PM EDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 243 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004 FLZ051-021930- HILLSBOROUGH- 243 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004 STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT TEMPLE TERRACE...SEFFNER...MANGO AND EAST LAKE ORIENT PARK...UNTIL 330 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MCMICHAEL
Special weather statement, Jul 2, 2:53 PM EDT, 1 hour 1 minute before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 253 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004 FLZ049>051-021945- HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-PINELLAS- 253 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004 STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT ODESSA...JASMINE ESTATES AND MOON LAKE ESTATES...AND NEW PORT RICHEY UNTIL 345 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MCMICHAEL
Special weather statement, Jul 2, 3:07 PM EDT, 47 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 307 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004 FLZ055-021945- MANATEE- 307 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN MANATEE COUNTY... A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING LITTLE...WILL AFFECT ELLENTON AND PARRISH...UNTIL 345 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. COLSON
Special weather statement, Jul 2, 3:14 PM EDT, 40 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004 FLZ048-022000- HERNANDO- 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004 STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL NORTHERN HERNANDO COUNTY INCLUDING ROYAL HIGHLANDS...UNTIL 400 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MCMICHAEL
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 4:43 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | TBW | 32 min | |
| Jul 2, 6:05 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | TBW | 55 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.