Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...EAST COAST SEABREEZE RAPIDLY MOVING OVER
THE S FL PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CU FIELD DEVELOPING
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY OF BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP SCT EVENING POPS
GOING WITH HIGHER VALUES ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THEN THE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OFFSHORE. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

WED/THU...MODELS HAVE SPED UP TIMING ON TROPICAL FEATURES TO EFFECT
THE REGION. DEEP E/SE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH NARROW AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
AHEAD OF TUTT/TROP WAVE WED TO KEEP POPS IN LOW END SCT CATEGORY.
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AGAIN TO HAVE TOUGH TIME AGAINST EASTERLY
FLOW SO WILL KEEP A LITTLE HIGH POPS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO. WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE WAVE MAY SEE
SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT WED MAINLY EXTREME S AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
WAVE NOW PROGGED TO BE IN EASTERN GULF THU. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP
THE AREA IN SE FLOW AND ON FAVORABLE PRECIP SIDE OF TROF AXIS. HAVE
KEPT NUMEROUS POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS WITH LESSER AMOUNT FURTHER
INLAND. THIS IS ABOVE GUIDANCE MOS WHICH HAS BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE
LATELY.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SIMPLY
PUT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FCST TRENDS...FAVORING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH PERHAPS A BIT LOWER THEN
NORMAL COVERAGE (40 PERCENT OR SO) AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

OBVIOUSLY...SUBTLE OSCILLATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL (SFC-850 MB) HIGH
AXIS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER CENTRAL/NATURE COAST GETS RAIN (SE FLOW)
OR INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES ARE FAVORED...BUT ITS TOO SOON TO
HONE IN ON THE DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO SAT.
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE THRU SOUTHERN WATERS THU WITH SLIGHTLY
TIGHTER GRADIENT HAVE INTRODUCED 10-15KT WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS ON
SOUTHERN 2/3 WATERS THU WITH MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. WINDS AND SEAS TO
DROP FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 92 75 90/ 40 40 30 60
FMY 73 93 73 91/ 40 40 30 60
GIF 73 93 74 92/ 30 40 20 50
SRQ 73 91 73 89/ 40 40 30 60
BKV 71 92 71 91/ 40 40 30 60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RD
LONG TERM....BG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
456 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-291400-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
456 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE STARTING AROUND MID AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW FROM
THESE STORMS WILL COLLIDE WITH BOUNDARIES COMING IN FROM THE EAST
COAST TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM THE COAST TO JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

INITIAL MOTION FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE
SLOW...ALLOWING FOR RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. BY THE EVENING HOURS THE STORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST AND OUT INTO THE GULF.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BESIDES THE RAINFALL TOTALS...THE MAIN THREATS ARE
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THE SMALLER RAIN CHANCES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SELF ACTIVATE TODAY WHENEVER THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME THREATENING.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 255 PM EDT TUE
JUN 29 2004...CORRECTED SPELLING

FLZ055-056-060>062-065-291945-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-LEE-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
255 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
WACHULLA...NORTHPORT...CAPE CORAL AND BONITA SHORES...UNTIL 345 PM
EDT. THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THE LINE WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS UP TO
50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE
LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN PORT
CHARLOTTE. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
320 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

FLZ056-057-292000-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
320 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN SEBRING...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT SEBRING AND
AVON PARK...AS WELL AS EASTERN HARDEE COUNTY...UNTIL 400 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN
EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

COLSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

FLZ049>052-055-056-060-292130-
HARDEE-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL COLLIDE
WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH 530 PM. THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED IN SARASOTA BY 4 PM...BRADENTON BY 420 PM...LAKELAND BY
430 PM...AND BRANDON BY 430 TO 5 PM. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TAMPA AND SAINT PETERSBURG BETWEEN 5 AND 530 PM. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS
TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
416 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TAMPA                   27.96N 82.48W
06/28/2004                   HILLSBOROUGH       FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

             43 LARGE TREES DOWN AT ROGERS PARK GOLF COURSE.REPORT
            FORWARDED BY NEWS CHANNEL WFLA.

&&

JS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
429 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

FLZ039-292115-
LEVY-
429 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL AREAS
NEAR DUNNELLON AND LEBANON...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50
MPH MAY CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES. FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
511 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

FLZ049>051-292215-
HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-PINELLAS-
511 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAMPA BAY AREA...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT
WESLEY CHAPEL...TEMPLE TERRACE...TAMPA AND SAINT PETERSBURG...UNTIL
615 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE
PEA SIZE HAIL.