Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR FOR DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
233 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

.CURRENTLY...MODERATE RAINS HAVE BROKEN OUT IN THE CENTRAL ZONES...
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE SW FL COASTAL WATERS.  GUSTY
WAKE-LOW GRADIENT WHICH BRIEFLY CRANKED WINDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT HAS
BACKED DOWN...WITH GENERAL WINDS NOW 10-15 MPH NEAR COAST AND 5-10
INLAND.  OTHER INTERESTING FACT IS DWPTS...WHICH HAVE FALLEN TO
NEAR 60 OVER ALL BUT THE SW CORNER...IN RESPONSE TO STABILIZED
AIRMASS AFTER SUN EVENINGS DYING MCS SWEPT THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WED)...WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE...BUT GIVEN QUICK MOVEMENT OF
THIS COMPLEX EXPECT IT TO END BY MID-MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE SW 1/3
OF THE AREA WHERE TAIL OF PASSING SHORT WAVE MAY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST.  BECOMING MORE OPTIMISTIC THAT WELL AVOID SEVERE WX GIVEN
ONGOING RAINS AND ALREADY STABLE AIRMASS...GOOD NEWS GIVEN THE
INCREASING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES THROUGH MID MORNING.

THE GFS...WHICH NORMALLY STRUGGLES WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...IS
OBVIOUSLY THE MODEL OF CHOICE THROUGH DAY 1 (AND PERHAPS LONGER) AS
THIS TIME THE FEEDBACK IS REAL...AND DEEP-MOISTURE-LACKING ETA IS
UNREALISTIC.

BY THIS EVENING...SYNOPTIC FORCING TAKES OVER AS PRE-FRONTAL
AREA/LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE E GULF AND EASE
ACROSS THE SUNCOAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.  WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR TSTMS ONE MORE TIME...BUT AGAIN
SITUATION WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE.  FOR NOW...CURRENT IDEA OF NUMEROUS
WORDING LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE.

ON TUE...TROUGH WILL PASS EARLY...FOLLOWED BY ACTUAL FRONT
TOWARD EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST AS RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING W WIND COMBINED WITH THE START OF STRONG
COLD ADVECTION ABOVE THE SFC MAY HOLD VALUES NOT TOO FAR ABOVE THOSE
AT DAYBREAK.  GFS GUIDANCE IMPLIES SAME...AND HAVE CUT VALUES A
BIT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

NW WINDS WILL GET CRANKING OFFSHORE LATE TUE AND CONTINUE INTO WED
MORNING.  IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL (FOR MID APRIL) ABOVE 900 MB WILL
CREATE WIDESPREAD GULF STRATOCU...SOME OF WHICH WILL MAKE IT
ONSHORE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP COASTAL TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN INLAND VALUES.  BY WED...NW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS DEEP
LAYER DRYING TAKES HOLD.  STILL...UNSEASONABLY COLD 850 TEMPS (+2
TO +4C) WILL COUNTER MID APRIL SUNSHINE AND HOLD TEMPS SOME 10-14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CERTAINLY...NOT A TYPICAL FLORIDA APRIL THUS FAR.

&&

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT - SUN)...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGH DECELERATES ALONG THE
EASTERN US COAST. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE TO OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW CLIMO INITIALLY AND THEN GRADUALLY
MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE MEAN FLOW TODAY
AND PROBABLY TONIGHT.  CERTAINLY...WAKE HIGHS/LOWS MAY BRIEFLY PUT
WINDS WELL INTO SCA RANGE BUT ON AVERAGE EXPECT VALUES TO HOLD AT
CAUTION CRITERIA.  WILL MENTION GUSTY IN AND NEAR TSTMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY TUE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY AFTN AND TUE NIGHT...WITH SCA
WINDS/SEAS A NEAR CERTAINTY TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

WAS A BIT CONCERNED WITH INCREASING TIDES GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG (1001
MB) GULF LOW AND INITIAL GUSTY S WINDS...BUT GFS TIDAL FCSTS
INDICATE NO MORE THAN 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL (LATER TODAY)...SO WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT.  ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS SEAS/SURF TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED.  MAY PUT A BRIEF MENTION IN THE DAY 3 PORTION OF
THE HWO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ESPECIALLY TODAY.  CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO
MIDWEEK AS MUCH DRIER AIR SETTLES IN.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 078 069 072 053 / 70 70 40 00
FMY 078 070 076 056 / 70 70 60 20
GIF 081 068 074 052 / 90 70 40 00
SRQ 077 069 072 054 / 70 70 40 00
BKV 079 066 071 048 / 70 70 40 00

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO
 60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....JLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
440 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048-121500-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER-
440 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR FLORIDAS NATURE COAST.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

THIS MORNING:  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS.

TONIGHT:  SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OF 40 MPH OR MORE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS.

IF STORMS APPROACH...SEEK SAFETY INDOORS.  IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

FLZ049>052-055>057-060>062-065-121500-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-
PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-
440 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO LAKELAND
AND POINTS SOUTH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS MORNINGS COMMUTE...
...MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN 530 AND 7 AM...THEN
CONTINUE QUICKLY THROUGH INTERIOR COUNTIES BY 8 AM.  RESIDENTS WILL
EXPERIENCE UP TO AN HOUR OF TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AS THE STORMS PASS.  STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH AS WELL AS EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING IN ALL AREAS...THOUGH
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
CHARLOTTE...LEE...DESOTO...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.  STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINS.

IF STORMS APPROACH...SEEK SAFETY INDOORS.  IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GULF MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY ROUGH SURF AND HIGH SEAS ALONG THE BARRIER ISLAND BEACHES
FROM PINELLAS THROUGH LEE COUNTIES.  THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.

THEREAFTER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY AND
POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
238 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

FLZ065-120715-
LEE-
238 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RACING THROUGH LEE COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH...WILL AFFECT CAPE
CORAL...FORT MYERS...ESTERO...AND LEHIGH ACRES...UNTIL 315 AM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS...AND BRIEF MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

GOLDSMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
351 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

FLZ049>052-055>057-060>062-065-121200-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-
PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-
351 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

...A STORMY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING THE COAST BETWEEN PASCO AND LEE COUNTIES
BETWEEN 530 AND 630 AM...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE METROPOLITAN AREAS
OF TAMPA BAY...SARASOTA AND BRADENTON...AND FORT MYERS...BETWEEN 6
AND 7 AM.  THE COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM.

TORRENTIAL RAINS...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM COMPLEX.  INDIVIDUAL
CELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SARASOTA THROUGH FORT MYERS...MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ALONG WITH EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE WORST OF THE STORMS WILL LAST NO MORE THAN ONE HOUR IN ANY
LOCATION...AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO LIGHTER RAINS BY MID
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL METROPOLITAN AREAS AND BY LATE MORNING OVER
INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS...SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA
TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS.  MARINERS SHOULD POSTPONE EARLY
MORNING TRIPS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
539 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

FLZ052-055>057-060>062-065-121500-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEE-MANATEE-POLK-SARASOTA-
539 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 69 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SARASOTA...POLK...HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...DE
SOTO...LEE...CHARLOTTE AND MANATEE COUNTIES.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE ONSHORE IN MANATEE AND SARASOTA
COUNTY BEFORE 6 AM...THEN IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES BY 630 AM.
THE LINE WILL RACE INTO INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 7 AM.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF SOUTHERN
SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES.  ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER OR PERHAPS A
BRIEF SMALL TORNADO.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG