Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
113 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MON)...SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ALONG WITH SEA/LAKE BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. COOL/DRY AIR ALOFT MAY AGAIN LEAD TO A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH HAIL AND OR DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS. BY LATE
EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL AGAIN WIND DOWN...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED. WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
ANOTHER ONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO MEANDER ABOUT THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (PWS AOA 1.6) WILL COMBINE WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL DIURNAL POPS WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
MAV POPS LOOK A BIT LOW GIVEN THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES
ARE NOTE EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH...SO WILL KEEP POPS CLOSER TO THE
MET GUIDANCE AND DEPICT POPS IN THE 40-50% RANGE BOTH DAY. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS 90 ALONG THE COAST...TO
THE LOWER/MID 90S WELL INLAND. MAV/MET TEMPS ARE SIMILAR AND
ACCEPTED.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT - SAT)...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING TREND AS UPPER TROF MOVES OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD
TUE/WED WHILE SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAIN AROUND TAMPA BAY OR JUST NORTH OF
IT. WILL CONTINUE SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND NEAR
CLIMO TEMPS.

THU-FRI...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE TUTT LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING FROM THE BAHAMAS/CUBA REGION TO OVER THE S FL PENINSULA LATER
IN THE WEEK. HAVE TRENDED GRIDS AND FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. EXPECT
SOME SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF FEATURES EARLY THU BUT ONCE THE TROF AXIS
MOVES OVER EXPECT CONVECTION TO ENHANCE. TIMING IS CRITICAL THOUGH...
IF THIS OCCURS DURING AFTERNOON HEATING COULD SEE ABUNDANT RAIN FALL
AS EARLY AS THU. TUTT PLUS SFC WAVE TO BE IN EASTERN GULF FRI INTO
SAT TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. TEMPS NOT
AS WARM WITH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL SUPPORT
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH A
DAILY ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WIND AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...
OTHERWISE NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 076 092 076 090/ 20 40 30 50
FMY 075 093 075 092/ 20 40 30 50
GIF 076 094 074 092/ 20 40 30 50
SRQ 076 091 074 090/ 20 40 30 50
BKV 072 092 071 091/ 20 40 30 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
522 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-261400-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
522 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS AND NEAR SHORE LOCATIONS FROM LEVY COUNTY...SOUTHWARD TO
MANATEE COUNTY...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REFORM OVER LAND ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD TODAY...AND GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY TO THE FORT MYERS REGION.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SELF ACTIVATE TODAY WHENEVER THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME THREATENING.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
151 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2004

FLZ048-261830-
HERNANDO-
151 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
HERNANDO COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
BROOKSVILLE...NOBLETON...AND CROOM UNTIL 230 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40
TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO
TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.

MCMICHAEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
446 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2004

FLZ065-262145-
LEE-
446 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEE COUNTY...
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT LEHIGH
ACRES...ALVA AND FORT MYERS UNTIL 545 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE
LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

JILLSON