Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
118 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SAT)...LITTLE CHANGE IN MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME...SO WILL USE A BLEND. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT TO
SEE SOME ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED RANGE (POPS 20-30%) CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY DISSIPATING THEREAFTER WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. THIS WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION...ALONG THE SEA BREEZES WITH THE
BEST AREAL COVERAGE SETTING UP DOWN THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA EACH
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS MOVE INLAND.

MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS A BIT DIFFERENT (GFS DEPICTS 60% FOR SATURDAY
VS 30% MET) SO WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND DEPICT NEAR NORMAL LATE
JUNE POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE THROUGHOUT FOR BOTH DAYS. AMPLE
SUNSHINE PRIOR TO ONSET OF CONVECTION EACH DAY ALONG WITH 85H TEMPS
 +20C WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 90S WELL INLAND. THESE HIGH TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL MAKE FOR UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT
INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. AT THE
MOMENT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY NEW RECORD MAX TEMPS...BUT SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS COULD GET (SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI BELOW) FAIRLY
CLOSE ON FRIDAY.

SOME RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY:
TAMPA.........98 IN 1950
ST. PETE......96 IN 1977
LAKELAND......98 IN 1988
SARASOTA......98 IN 1988
FT MYERS......97 IN 1948

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT - THU)...LONG RANGE MODEL STILL CONSISTENT WITH
SFC RIDGE HANGING OUT OVER THE FA. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS OFF TO OUR SW AND SE. LATEST RUN NOW HAS THE SERN ONE
QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA STARTING MON...WHEREAS THE SWRN ONE WEAKENS
AND STAYS IN THE GULF. YESTERDAYS RUN HAD THEM BOTH MAINTAINING
INTENSITY AND LOCATION. BELIEVE WILL HAVE SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
THUS EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND SEA
BREEZES TO PROVIDE FOR SCT AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA/WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A LIGHT
SE-SLY WIND FLOW FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...AND A SOUTH TO SW FLOW
FURTHER NORTH. MAY BRIEFLY SEE SOME HIGHER WIND/SEAS IN THE VICINITY
OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE NO HIGHLIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAX TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL AGAIN SUPPORT AN HOUR OR
TWO OR LOW RHS (40%) MAINLY OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...OTHERWISE NO WATCHES OR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 079 093 077 093/ 20 30 20 30
FMY 076 094 076 093/ 30 30 30 30
GIF 076 095 076 095/ 30 30 30 40
SRQ 077 091 076 092/ 20 30 20 30
BKV 072 093 072 093/ 20 30 20 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...SHARP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
457 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
457 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...HOT WEATHER CONTINUING WITH LIMITED RAIN RELIEF...

STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HEAT ALONG WITH FAIRLY
HIGH HUMIDITY NEAR THE GULF COAST.  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES LATER THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE GULF COAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING OVER INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...THEN
TRACK BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER DARK.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINS LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH.

DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...BEFORE YOU GET THIRSTY. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. RESERVE STRENUOUS EXERCISE FOR EARLY MORNING
OR EVENING HOURS. STAY NEAR AIR CONDITIONED LOCATIONS IF POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

...CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL INTO NEXT
WEEK...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...MAINTAINING HOT AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PROVIDE RELIEF.  HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE 100 IN MANY AREAS...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY THE EVENING VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 90
UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET...EXCEPT IN THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY RULES...ESPECIALLY
DURING EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
430 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2004

FLZ055-060-242115-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
430 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RURAL AREAS IN SARASOTA AND
MANATEE COUNTIES...
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL EASTERN
SARASOTA COUNTY AND RURAL SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY...UNTIL 515 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

JILLSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
511 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2004

FLZ061-242200-
DE SOTO-
511 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RURAL PORTIONS OF DESOTO
COUNTY...
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL WESTERN
DESOTO COUNTY...UNTIL 600 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY
CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND
WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

JILLSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
702 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2004

FLZ051-250000-
HILLSBOROUGH-
706 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH THROUGH CENTRAL
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY AND WILL AFFECT BRANDON...MANGO...PALM RIVER
CLAIR MEL...AND TEMPLE TERRACE THROUGH 800 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO
50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE
LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

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