Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
220 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-THU)...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SET UP NORTH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL BACK
WINDS TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ALBEIT NOT THAT STRONG.  MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS POCKET
OF DRY AIR ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OVER AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FALLING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES BY
THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WHEN COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE TO CAUSE SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.  BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HANG
ON THE LONGEST AND THEN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THURSDAY WHERE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE DAY.  THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN
GENERALLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.  STEERING FLOW WILL
INCREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST
AND THIS SHOULD PUSH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TOWARD WEST COAST.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL
ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM (THU NGT-TUE)...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE SE US WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE EXTENDED
VEERING FLOW FROM S/SE TO S/SW. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE
STATE AND WITH LIGHT FLOW OVER THE AREA...AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY. KEPT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.  NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WINDS
AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 91 75 92 / 30 50 30 40
FMY 74 92 73 92 / 30 40 30 40
GIF 74 93 73 93 / 30 50 30 40
SRQ 75 90 74 90 / 30 50 30 40
BKV 72 92 71 92 / 30 50 30 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM...JLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TO ADD HIGHLANDS COUNTY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
455 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-151400-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
455 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

ABUNDANT MOISTURE...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS
EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SETTING
UP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR FROM OCALA SOUTHWEST TO THE TAMPA BAY
AREA...AND FROM TAMPA SOUTH TO FORT MYERS. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN ARCADIA AND LAKELAND...AND BETWEEN
LAKE PLACID AND HAINES CITY.

A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN FAVOR SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JCM/PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
349 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

FLZ065-152045-
LEE-
349 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LEE COUNTY...
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
LEE COUNTY AND AFFECT AREAS NEAR BONITA SPRINGS...BONITA SHORES...
BY AROUND 415 PM...THEN MOVE TO NEAR LEHIGH ACRES AND ESTERO...BY 5
PM. GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
404 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

FLZ051-152045-
HILLSBOROUGH-
404 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

...THESE STORMS ARE MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH AND WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
PLANT CITY DOWN TO AROUND STATE ROAD 60...UNTIL 445 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SHARP