Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
212 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-WED)...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION OVER
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THEN
BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS EACH DAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.  EXPECT
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND TO AROUND THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NOT QUITE AS FAR ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS
WILL SET UP THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON TUESDAY FAVORING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.  STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE
SOME ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST...WITH BEST CHANCES OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER COASTAL COUNTIES.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL
ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-MON)...UPPER AND SFC RIDGING BUILD OVER THE
REGION WITH FLOW REMAINING GENERALLY S/SE. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVER THE STATE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO THE MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS STAY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.  NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WINDS
AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 92 76 92 / 30 70 30 60
FMY 74 92 75 92 / 30 70 30 60
GIF 74 93 75 93 / 30 50 30 50
SRQ 74 90 75 90 / 30 70 30 60
BKV 72 92 73 92 / 30 70 30 60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM...JLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
445 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141400-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
445 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY. A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
325 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

FLZ049-142015-
PASCO-
325 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN PASCO COUNTY...

...THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH...AND WILL AFFECT
DADE CITY AND SAN ANTONIO...UNTIL 415 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO FALL. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

SHARP