Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

.SHORT TERM (THIS EVE - WED)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
FCST.  STORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG SEA BREEZE AND NEAR
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AREAS IN LEVY CO AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO TRIGGER
VALUES (U80S).  EXPECT SLOW MOVERS WITH INITIAL SEA BREEZE ACTION
PUSHING ACTIVITY INLAND AT FIRST...THEN PROBABLY SOME REDEVELOPMENT
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.  SKIES WILL CLEAR
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT SOME CLOUDS OWING TO SOMEWHAT
SLOW ENDING TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

MORE OF THE SAME TUE WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST AS MEAN LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE ESE...AND A CONTINUATION OF THAT
TREND ON WEDNESDAY.  STILL...WITH MEAN FLOW REMAINING LIGHT (10 KT
OR LESS) EXPECT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TO EFFECT NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT
WHICH WILL CARRY INTO THE EVENING EACH DAY.

COVERAGE OF TSTMS IN QUESTION GIVEN DIFFERING DEEP MOISTURE
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT DRIER THROUGH THE PERIOD THAN THE
ETA.  ETA APPEARS A BIT BIASED TOWARD THE WET SIDE GIVEN THE
PATTERN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD CLIMO (SCATTERED) VALUES
EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...MODELS HAVE DONE A FLIP ON THE LATEST
OUTPUT AND HAVE KEPT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OVER THE REGION
WHICH WAS A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION ANYWAY...SO WILL TREND FCTS
THAT WAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE SFC RIDGE
MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENINSULA THRU THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP SCT DIURNAL POPS INITIATING ON THE SEA BREEZES/OUTFLOWS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT GENERALLY SE FLOW INTO FRI...WITH A POSSIBLE
BUT SUBTLE SWITCH BACK TO THE SSW OVER THE N PORTION ON SAT.
STILL...WITH UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER/JUST N OF THE AREA AND SFC
RIDGE MORE OR LESS ON TOP OF US...EXPECT CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS...BUT RH MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 40
PERCENT OVER INLAND AREAS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM EACH AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA 074 090 074 090 / 40 50 40 50
FMY 072 092 072 092 / 40 50 40 50
GIF 072 092 072 092 / 30 50 20 50
SRQ 071 089 071 089 / 40 50 40 50
BKV 068 091 068 092 / 40 50 40 50

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
546 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-071500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
546 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...THE SEA BREEZES...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZES TO MOVE WELL INLAND FAVORING INLAND
AREAS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BACK TOWARD THE COAST.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER
INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 WHERE THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM TODAYS STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND THIS
WILL FAVOR MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST
SHIFTING TO INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
223 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

FLZ048-071915-
HERNANDO-
223 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HERNANDO COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT WEEKI WACHEE AND
BROOKSVILLE...UNTIL 315 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY
TRAVEL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
342 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

FLZ051-072030-
HILLSBOROUGH-
342 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT
LUTZ...CARROLLWOOD...WEST PARK AND TOWN N COUNTRY...UNTIL 430 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.