Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
110 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH WEAK VORT
LOBES MOVING THROUGH ITS BASE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SERN U.S. AND
FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY BECOMING
ALIGNED SE-NW ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
DAYS...AND WILL BLANKET THE FORECAST AREA WITH POPS IN THE 40-50%
RANGE. LIGHT STEERING FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN ALLOW STORMS TO
PROPAGATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS A BIT FURTHER NORTH...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SETTING UP ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO-LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAV/MET
GUIDANCE IS AGAIN CLOSE...SO WILL USE A BLEND.

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-FRI)...UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA SUN
NIGHT AND BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED BY MID WEEK. SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVER N FL/S GA KEEPING THE AREA IN SE LL FLOW WITH PLENTY OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN PLACE TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON WEST COAST SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT WILL LATER COLLIDE
WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST EXT MODELS
TRY TO SPIN UP UPPER AND SFC LOW IN WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND MOVE IT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. SFC GRADIENT WOULD TIGHTEN
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AHEAD OF SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SCT
POPS ATTM AND WAIT TO SEE BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...BUT HIGHER WIND AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO WATCHES OR RED FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 075 088 074 090/ 20 50 40 50
FMY 072 090 072 091/ 30 50 40 50
GIF 072 090 072 091/ 40 50 40 50
SRQ 072 087 072 089/ 20 50 40 50
BKV 068 090 068 090/ 20 50 30 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM....DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-041500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DESOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
5 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND A
MOIST...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS...AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA...NORTHWARD TO CEDAR KEY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HELPS TO PUSH THE STORMS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE INLAND COUNTIES.

SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY INLAND.

THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG. BY SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY...AND CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE
GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1022 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

FLZ039-041515-
LEVY-
1022 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WILL
AFFECT FANNING SPRINGS...CHIEFLAND...AND BRONSON...UNTIL 1115 AM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MCMICHAEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1137 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

FLZ039-041615-
LEVY-
1137 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT BRONSON
AND WILLISTON...UNTIL 1215 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL
OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MCMICHAEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
117 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

FLZ055-060-041800-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
117 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING EAST AT 5 MPH WILL AFFECT RURAL
SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY AND RURAL EASTERN SARASOTA
COUNTY...UNTIL 200 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

MCMICHAEL