Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1257 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

.CURRENTLY...EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING THEN CLEARING
SKIES AND SOME VERY PATCHY FOG.  THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA
WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU MONDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE FOR SUNDAY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE PM
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT DEEP LAYER STEERING
FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY KEEPING THE COASTAL AREAS MOSTLY
RAIN FREE.  MONDAY TEH FRONT STARTS TO PROGRESS DOWN THE STATE AND
PHASES UP WITH AN SHORT WAVE AROUND MID DAY.  SEASONBLY WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

.EXTENDED (MONDAY NIGHT THRU SAT)...FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FA AND INTO THE SOUTH END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST U.S. COAST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA TUESDAY WITH SCT TO ISOLATED POPS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BY TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SUB TROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF FL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME
CLOUDS AROUND BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD SUFFICE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN MOVES BY TO THE NORTH AND REACHES
THE ATLANTIC BY SAT BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK OVER THE GULF.
ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. HAVE OPTED
TO CARRY TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS OPPOSED TO THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY NICE BOATING
WEATHER, IF YOU CAN DODGE THE SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...NO HEADLINES TIL AFTER FROPA
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 070/086 069/084 3525
FMY 070/088 069/086 2525
GIF 069/089 068/085 2525
SRQ 070/085 069/083 3525
BKV 068/086 066/084 3525

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SOBIEN
LONG TERM...RUDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
515 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-011500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
515 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DAY TIME HEATING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INITIALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES TODAY SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY. WHEN SKIES DARKEN...
MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL
EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR
RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER LOCATIONS NORTH OF TAMPA...WHERE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
STORMS THAT DO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...
HEAVY RAINS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

JCM