Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
250 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2004

.CURRENTLY...SQAULL LINE RUNNING FROM NORTHERN POLK COUNTY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TAMPA AND ST PETE THEN INTO GULF OF MEXICO. LINE HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WHILE INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RACE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONGEST CELLS
ARE NOW ONSHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING INLAND OVER POLK...
HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES AS WELL AS BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE IN
ALL BUT LEVY COUNTY WHERE IT IS DRY AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM(TODAY-THU)...THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL...THE
COLD FRONT IS FAR ENOUGH UPSTREAM WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND STILL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE
RAPIDLY TODAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN REMAINING AFTER 18Z AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
STEADY TEMPS OR A SLOW DECREASE THEREAFTER.

COLD AIR ADVECTION IN FULL SWING OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADILY
DROPPING TO THE 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VERY DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR STRATOCU
THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF.

A COLD BUT SUNNY DAY IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO VERY LOW 60S SOUTH...SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER ALABAMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING
DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHEAST DRAINAGE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT AND LONG DURATION FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FROM HERNANDO COUNTY NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH THIS MORNING WITH THE ZONE PACKAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT
5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM (THURS NIGHT-MONDAY)...GFS SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART IS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS..ALTHOUGH IS NOW FASTER WITH SWEEPING THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW ACROSS THE STATE DURING
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

ON FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF SE TX/LA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SOUTH OF
LA...TRACKING IT EAST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND LIFT AND
MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STILL THINK MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY CONTINUE TO
VARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
RANGE 50% FOR NOW. GIVEN THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GFS WILL REMOVE
LOW POP MENTION ON SATURDAY AND DEPICT LESS CLOUDS AS WELL AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON A N-NELY WIND FLOW AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSES ITSELF INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES RAPIDLY EAST AS FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW
CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON
MONDAY. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM. IN ADDITION UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS ALSO LACKING...SO AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT...WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. MEX TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND ACCEPTED FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR SEASONAL
LEVEL READINGS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEARBY THE SQUALL LINE HAVE BEEN GUSTY...UP TO 30
KNOTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF THE LINE...WINDS ARE MORE IN
THE 15 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION UP FOR ALL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS TODAY...BUT MAY SEE ABOUT A 4 HOUR
DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE NOT
QUITE THERE AND WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO DECIDE ON WHETHER IT
WARRANTS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 068 042 057 038 063 / 40 00 00 00 00
FMY 073 048 062 041 070 / 50 00 00 00 00
GIF 070 042 058 038 065 / 70 00 00 00 00
SRQ 069 044 058 037 066 / 70 00 00 00 00
BKV 068 033 057 026 061 / 20 00 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO
60NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
 FREEZE WATCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LEVY...
CITRUS...HERNANDO AND SUMTER COUNTIES

SHORT TERM - JILLSON
LONG TERM  - MCMICHAEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-271530-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
530 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AT
TIMES AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY...AND
MARINERS IN SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO ALL OF FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING
ALONG THE NATURE COAST...WITH MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS
INTERIOR LEE COUNTY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)