Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WGUS72 KTBW 072256
FFSTBW
FLC057-080015-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
651 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTY...

...UNTIL 815 PM EDT.

AT 655 PM EDT...THE THUNDERSTORM HAD WEAKENED AND ONLY SOME LIGHT 
RAIN WAS OCCURRING.  HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE STORM WILL 
CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND SOME 
ROADWAYS IN AND AROUND RUSKIN AND SUN CITY CENTER FOR THE NEXT HOUR 
OR SO.  FARMLAND ALONG STREAM BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INUNDATED.  
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND
CREEKS...SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS...OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH...BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT
AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

DONT BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN


&&

LAT...LON 2774 8232 2776 8244 2769 8249 2764 8231

$$

69

000 
WGUS72 KTBW 072258 CCA
FFSTBW
FLC057-080015-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
657 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTY...

...UNTIL 815 PM EDT.

AT 655 PM EDT...THE THUNDERSTORM HAD WEAKENED AND ONLY SOME LIGHT 
RAIN WAS OCCURRING.  HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE STORM WILL 
CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND SOME 
ROADWAYS IN AND AROUND RUSKIN AND SUN CITY CENTER FOR THE NEXT HOUR 
OR SO.  FARMLAND ALONG STREAM BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INUNDATED.  
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND
CREEKS...SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS...OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH...BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT
AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

DONT BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN


&&

LAT...LON 2774 8232 2776 8244 2769 8249 2764 8231

$$

69

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
110 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

.CURRENT...WINDS FROM OCALA TO CEDAR KEY TO BOUY 42036 WERE EAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SFC OBS SHOW COLD FRONT E-W THROUGH
VENICE...DOPPLER SCT TSTMS ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT WITH ISOLD SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH.

.SHORT TERM (TGT-MON)...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FEATURE RACING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE AREAL
COVERAGE OF PCPN SOUTH OF LEVY COUNTY THIS EVENING. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH STALLING COLD FRONT NEAR PUNTA GORDA TONIGHT...
THEN BRINGING IT INTO NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (LEVY COUNTY) BY MONDAY.
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ANCHORED IN FORECAST.
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO LEVY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW LOWS
TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TONIGHT...70S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A ZONAL PATTERN
ALOFT...FOR A CHANGE...BUT THEN QUICKLY AMPLIFIES INTO ANOTHER EAST
COAST TROUGH BY THU. AT THE SFC...SOME WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER
THE FA BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE S. HAVE
KEPT THIS TREND IN WITH THE WIND FIELDS...BUT HAVE TWEAKED SPEEDS
DOWN TUE AND WED BECAUSE AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK
LOWS IN THE GULF AND/OR THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE TROUGH. BY WED AFTN
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SE AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE KEPT SPEEDS FOR THE NRN WATERS AROUND 10 KTS AS
EXPECT SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT THERE...BUT SHUD LOW DEVELOP MAY
HAVE TO GO A HIGHER.

CLIMO SUGGESTS THAT POPS BE REDUCED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN
FA...HOWEVER WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIKELY TO ROTATE AROUND THE
TROUGH AND THE WEAK SFC TROUGH...EXPECT RAINY PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN
THE LONG TERM AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH-END SCT POPS LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL KEEP. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP MAX (MIN) TEMPS AROUND OR
JUST BELOW (ABOVE) CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE...AT 1 PM EDT BUOY 42036 REPORTED EAST WINDS 16G19KT WITH
SEAS 4.9 FT. WILL NOT CARRY SCEC INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 076 088 076 089 / 50 60 40 50
FMY 076 088 074 090 / 50 70 40 40
GIF 075 088 075 090 / 50 70 40 50
SRQ 075 088 074 088 / 50 70 40 40
BKV 073 088 072 089 / 50 50 40 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIESS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...NOAH
LONG TERM...RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
503 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048-071500-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER-
503 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR FLORIDAS NATURE COAST.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT RAIN BY MID EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW...MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FLZ049>052-055>057-060>062-065-071500-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-
PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-
503 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA MAINLY SOUTH OF A TAMPA TO LAKELAND LINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...

EARLY THIS MORNING: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
TORRENTIAL RAINS NEAR THE COAST FROM MANATEE COUNTY TO CHARLOTTE AND
LEE COUNTIES.  RAINFALL OF UP TO 3 INCHES IN STRONGER CELLS IS
POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON:  MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WESTERN DESOTO NORTHWEST TO
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...INCLUDING ALL OF POLK AND HIGHLANDS AND
MOST OF HARDEE COUNTY.  STORM TOTALS IN THESE AREAS COULD REACH 3
INCHES OR MORE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING: A FEW STRAY STORMS MAY DEVELOP AMIDST AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING
AREAS. SMALL STREAMS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED BANK FULL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE MINOR FLOOD
PROBLEMS...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

THIS WOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS...ESPECIALLY AS ONE GOES TOWARD
THE COAST...ARE RUNNING HIGH.  BECAUSE THE GROUND IS SATURATED...MUCH
OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL GO DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF...INCREASING
THE THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE ADVISORIES AND FLOOD WARNINGS. FOR UPDATED
RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...CHECK THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?TBW

BSG