Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
0930AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA INCLUDING THE
MARINE AREAS.  MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH 500 MB FOR TODAY AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS FURTHER WEST
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS WILL HELP TO REDUCE
THE AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE ENTERING INTO OUR AREA.  ALSO THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME DRYING OVER THE CWA.  THIS MORNINGS
MODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWS A 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER...A
RESPECTABLE  LI -7 AND CAPE 3268 WHICH IS STILL SOME IMPROVEMENT
OVER YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY.
EXPECTING SEABREEZE CONVECTION OVER LAND TO GET A LATER START TODAY
WITH LESS PRECIPITATION THAN OCCURRED YESTERDAY.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THEN
MARCH EAST WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  MAY NEED TO REDUCE POPS
OVER THE ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDRO...CONVECTION PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LEVELS OF CONCERN.

RJL

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
220 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
A REVIEW OF RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WAS
ACTUALLY GREATEST OVER OUR GA ZONES AND LEAST OVER OUR ERN FL BIG
BEND ZONES. SEA BREEZE EVOLUTION SEEMED TO FIT A TYPE 5 PATTERN
(W-SW 1000-700MB MEAN FLOW > 10 KNOTS). SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM A
WEAKENING LINE OF CONVECTION RECENTLY ENTERED OUR WRN ZONES...BUT
THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGES SHOW SWLY FLOW OVER OUR WRN ZONES WITH THE UPPER HIGH NOW
PUSHED FARTHER E TO OVER THE JAX CWFA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND SUNDAY.
TODAY - ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE MORE WLY...EXPECT ANOTHER TYPE 5
REGIME. SHORT RANGE H3 PROGS SUGGEST SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY SPREAD N
INTO THE CWFA AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
BEGINS TO OPEN AND MOVES N. DO NOT THINK THIS RIDGING SHOULD HAVE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT...AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A WETTER AND MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY.

SUNDAY - THE YUCATAN CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO OPEN
INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE CWFA. HAVE GONE WITH
HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TIMING SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION
COULD BE JUST AS PREVALENT IN THE MORNING AS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
HAVE EDITED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAISED POPS MONDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.

&&

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 91 73 92 72 / 60 40 60 30
PFN 88 76 90 76 / 50 40 60 30
DHN 87 72 89 73 / 60 40 60 30
ABY 87 71 90 73 / 60 40 60 30
VLD 90 72 91 72 / 60 40 60 30
CTY 90 74 91 73 / 40 40 60 30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

TJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
515 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2004

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-270915-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL-
GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-
INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
515 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS...RESULTING
IN A THREAT FOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE
REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

48-TURNAGE