Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
910 PM EDT MON APR 12 2004

.UPDATE...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DROPPED A FEW MORE MILLIBARS
SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. A
1002MB LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL AL. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL GA...AND ACROSS FL
PANHANDLE AS DYNAMICS KICK IN AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. RECENTLY
CONVECTION THAT WAS DISSIPATING AS IT CAME ASHORE IS NOW MAINTAINING
ITSELF AND IS PRODUCING MARBLE SIZE HAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE
PRECIP AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE
WELCOME. OFFSHORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THE OFFSHORE WINDS. SEAS
HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALSO.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY ALL ZONES.
GA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 13/0100EDT.
FL...SCA ALL MARINE ZONES.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY ALL ZONES.

&&

WATSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
515 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-130915-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL-
GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-
INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
515 AM EDT MON APR 12 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA INDICATES THAT THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT CERTAIN. IF
OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST ALL DAY...THEN THE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED.
HOWEVER...IF WE SEE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HIGH...THOSE THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY TO HEAD OUT INTO THE GULF AS A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO ENHANCE
THE SPREAD OF ANY NEW OR EXISTING WILDFIRES. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF HEADING OUT INTO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS...AT
LEAST UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES. SEE OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR
DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

18-WOOL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
809 PM EDT MON APR 12 2004

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-130500-
BAKER GA-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-CLAY GA-
COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DOUGHERTY GA-
EARLY GA-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-HENRY AL-HOUSTON AL-IRWIN GA-LANIER GA-
LEE GA-LOWNDES GA-MILLER GA-MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-
SEMINOLE GA-TERRELL GA-THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WORTH GA-
810 PM EDT MON APR 12 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING(MIDNIGHT CDT
TUESDAY MORNING).

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN ALABAMA...COFFEE...GENEVA...DALE...HENRY...AND HOUSTON.

IN GEORGIA...QUITMAN...CLAY...EARLY...MILLER...SEMINOLE...RANDOLPH...
CALHOUN...BAKER...DECATUR...TERRELL...DOUGHERTY...MITCHELL...GRADY...
LEE...WORTH...COLQUITT...THOMAS...TURNER...TIFT...COOK...BROOKS...BEN
HILL...IRWIN...BERRIEN...LANIER...AND LOWNDES.

REMEMBER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

12-WATSON