Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
247 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

.SYNOPSIS...THINGS ARE EVOLVING AS ANTICIPATED AT UPPER LEVELS. ONE
SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS PA, WITH ANOTHER PUSHING FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. A SRN EXTENSION OF THIS LATTER
WAVE IS BEING ENHANCED BY CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPANDING OVER FL AND THE GULF. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE WRN BORDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. A TONGUE OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR IS NOSING NWD TO THE E OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
WRN FL BIG BEND AND SW GA. MOST OF TODAYS CONVECTION SO FAR HAS
OCCURRED ALONG THIS AXIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS AND THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEAMPLIFY. THE ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL HEAD PRIMARILY SWD INTO TX.
HOWEVER, THE MODELS DO SHOW A SHEARED OUT VORT LOBE SETTLING SEWD
INTO DIXIE ON TUE. THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THE WEAK FRONT OR MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO OUR W WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUE. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WSW
AROUND 10 KT (SEA BREEZE REGIME 4). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL
MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE THE RECENT STRATEGY OF BLENDING MOS, BUT GIVING EXTRA
WEIGHT TO THE GFS/MAV. WE WILL BE MAINTAINING AN INCREASING POP
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. POPS OVER THE SERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WILL BE
RAIDED ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM EXISTING VALUES. BY WED, MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS DRIER AIR ADVANCING EWD AGAIN. LOWER POPS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE GRIDS/ZONES LOOK REASONABLE. TEMP GUIDANCE IS WELL
CLUSTERED AND LOOKS GOOD. ONE OTHER NOTE: WE HAVE SEEN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS, AND WE
PLAN TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS FOR TONIGHT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH MON.
THE EARLY MORNING TPC TRACK FOR EARL WAS CONSIDERABLY TO THE LEFT
(SOUTH) OF THE TRACK WE WERE LOOKING AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE
SYSTEM HAS SINCE DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE EARL IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN TS STRENGTH AND
COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE, THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER FL AND MUCH OF THE GULF BY MIDWEEK IS NOW
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THU AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI. AT
THIS LATITUDE, IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE
PICKED UP BY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWEEPING TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRI. FOR THIS REASON, WE WERE ABLE TO TREND AWAY
FROM THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WE HAD BEEN ADVERTISING FOR LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOKED REASONABLE AS
THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO PUSH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT DEEP
INTO THE SE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WERE CALM AT BOTH BUOYS LAST CHECK AS THEY STRADDLE
THE NARROW AREA OF CONVECTION. LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS IS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ITS SUMMER IN FL...TOO HUMID FOR ANY CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 71 89 70 91 / 30 50 20 30
PFN 74 88 74 89 / 20 40 10 20
DHN 70 89 69 91 / 20 30 10 20
ABY 71 89 69 91 / 20 40 10 20
VLD 71 89 69 91 / 30 50 20 30
CTY 71 88 71 91 / 30 50 20 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

WOOL/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-171000-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL-
GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-
INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
545 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH FLORIDA
MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A STRONG
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EACH DAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LOW.  ALSO...THE TROPICS MUST BE MONITORED AND TROPICAL STORM
EARL MAY AFFECT THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE BEACHES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

7-TREXLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

GAZ145-146-161930-
COLQUITT GA-MITCHELL GA-
301 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

AT 300 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHEAST MITCHELL COUNTY
GEORGIA MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. IT WILL SHORTLY MOVE INTO WESTERN
COLQUITT COUNTY.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WHICH MAY
TOPPLE SMALL TREES AND BRANCHES.

24-BLOCK