Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

EXTREMELY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO WIND
DOWN...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED
HAIL WERE RECEIVED. REFLECTIVITY CORES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
FREQUENTLY EXCEEDED 65 DBZ UP TO 30000 FEET...WHICH GREATLY
CONTRIBUTED TO THE LARGE HAIL SIZE...ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH HELPING TO LOWER FREEZING LEVELS AND WET
BULB ZEROES. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE THE WATCH WORDING FROM THE
ZONES AT 01Z...AND THEN WILL LIKELY UPDATE AGAIN LATER TO REDUCE
OVERNIGHT POPS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE RUNNING OUT OF
THE W-SW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

GOULD

.PREV DISCUSSION...
********************************************************************
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

.SYNOPSIS...FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD PASSED CSG AND MGM. BEHIND THE
FRONT...DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 70F...TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S. STRONG
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CWA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10. WV IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. APPEARS THAT LTG HAS TOUCHED OFF A BRUSH FIRE. VSBYS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW A MILE AT KTLH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME OLD THING...TROUGH IN THE EAST...RIDGE IN
THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD NOT PASS THROUGH THE AREA...
AND WILL WASH OUT TOMORROW AS NEW SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH. MODELS ARE MORE IN
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAN LAST NIGHT AS NEW SHORT WAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
OUR AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPS DOWN FOR CLOUDS AND WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SAME OLD THING...TROUGH IN THE EAST...RIDGE IN THE WEST. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER...RIDGING MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL
REDUCE POPS AND WARM US UP AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE MAINLY WESTERLY ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH SEAS RUNNING
BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT AT THE BUOYS.  WAVE WATCH BRINGS THE SEAS UP SIGNIFICANTLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS FEATURE BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS
AT LEAST 5 KTS LOWER THAN THE GFS AND WAVE WATCH SUGGESTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 75 93 74 89 / 30 50 30 60
PFN 80 89 76 88 / 30 40 30 60
DHN 74 92 74 87 / 20 40 30 60
ABY 73 93 74 88 / 10 30 20 60
VLD 73 92 73 88 / 20 40 30 60
CTY 76 88 73 87 / 30 50 30 60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

WATSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
505 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-160905-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL-
GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-
INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
455 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF
VERY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR LIES ACROSS THIS REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ALABAMA FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES. VEERING
WIND PROFILES AND DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE AREAS FURTHER EAST ARE NOT IN
THE OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS OPPRESSIVE AS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... IT WILL STILL BE HOT
WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE THE
MAIN THREAT IF STORMS ORGANIZE ALONG A COMMON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG STORMS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE RARE IN JULY...BUT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS ONCE COULD MAKE IT INTO THE GULF. IF THIS
HAPPENS...DRIER AIR MAY FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SINCE SOME OF STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BEACHES WEST OF CAPE SAN BLAS. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BEACHES.

A RIP CURRENT IS A STRONG NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE
BEACH THROUGH THE SURF ZONE. IT CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO
DEEPER WATER.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...WADE SIDEWAYS PARALLEL TO THE
BEACH UNTIL YOU ARE OUT OF ITS PULL. TO ESCAPE...RIDE THE CURRENT OUT
BEYOND THE SURF ZONE WHERE THE RIP CURRENT DISSIPATES...THEN SWIM TO
SHORE OUTSIDE THE NARROW CURRENT.

ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. WATCH
YOUR CHILDREN. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND
UNGUARDED BEACHES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

18-WOOL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
358 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

FLZ019-152028-
MADISON FL-
358 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL MADISON
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF MADISON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
THIS STORM SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEFORE 430 PM EDT.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WHICH MAY
TOPPLE SMALL TREES AND BRANCHES...PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

48-TURNAGE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
415 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>013-016>019-026>029-GAZ120>129-131-142>148-155>161-
160100-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-
COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-DALE AL-DECATUR GA-
DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-HENRY AL-
HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-
JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-
LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-
SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-
WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
418 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY
EVENING (800 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING).

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN ALABAMA...COFFEE...GENEVA...DALE...HENRY...AND HOUSTON.

IN FLORIDA...WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...BAY...JACKSON...
CALHOUN...GADSDEN...LIBERTY...LEON...WAKULLA...
JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...AND LAFAYETTE.

IN GEORGIA...QUITMAN...CLAY...EARLY...MILLER...SEMINOLE...RANDOLPH...
CALHOUN...BAKER...DECATUR...TERRELL...DOUGHERTY...MITCHELL...GRADY...
LEE...WORTH...COLQUITT...THOMAS...TURNER...TIFT...COOK...BROOKS...
IRWIN...BERRIEN...LANIER...AND LOWNDES.

REMEMBER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

48-TURNAGE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
438 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

GAZ160-152108-
LOWNDES GA-
439 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

AT 438 PM EDT(338 PM CDT)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LOWNDES COUNTY NEAR VALDOSTA
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM SHOULD CROSS INTERSTATE 75 AND EXIT
THE COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER 500 PM EDT.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WHICH MAY
TOPPLE SMALL TREES AND BRANCHES...PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

48-TURNAGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
546 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 E CRAWFORDVILLE       30.18N 84.24W
07/15/2004                   WAKULLA            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES FELL ON HOME. POWERLINES DOWN.

0315 PM     HAIL             7 NW TALLAHASSEE        30.51N 84.36W
07/15/2004  1.00 INCH        LEON               FL   PUBLIC

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARLINGTON               31.44N 84.73W
07/15/2004                   CALHOUN            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. ROADS BLOCKED.

0435 PM     HAIL             3 NW ALBANY             31.61N 84.21W
07/15/2004  0.75 INCH        DOUGHERTY          GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SW IRWINVILLE         31.58N 83.47W
07/15/2004                   IRWIN              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN. BLOCKING ROAD.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW ALBANY             31.56N 84.20W
07/15/2004                   DOUGHERTY          GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A NUMBER OF LARGE TREES DOWN. SOME TREES WITH TOPS
            SNAPPED OFF.

0445 PM     HAIL             7 E ALBANY              31.58N 84.06W
07/15/2004  1.75 INCH        DOUGHERTY          GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT MARINE CORPS LOGISTICS CENTER

&&

WATSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
820 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

FLZ011-160120-
JACKSON FL-
818 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

AT 720 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH INTO
JACKSON COUNTY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PEA TO MARBLE SIZE
HAIL AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WHICH MAY
TOPPLE SMALL TREES AND BRANCHES...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

17-GOULD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
849 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

FLZ034-160119-
DIXIE FL-
850 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

AT 849 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL DIXIE COUNTY JUST NORTH
OF HORSESHOE BEACH...MOVING S AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WHICH MAY
TOPPLE SMALL TREES AND BRANCHES...PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

52-LANIER