Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Sacramento, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 PM PDT TUE OCT 26 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE ALPINE COUNTY AREA.  HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES IN THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
SIERRA...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED DECREASE FROM AROUND EL
DORADO COUNTY NORTH.  WS ETA BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA 03Z-06Z AS VORT MAX ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND INTENSIFIES PRECIPITATION.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL BE WHEN THIS
HAPPENS.  WILL EXTEND THE WSW IN ZONE 69 THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND RED BLUFF TO REDDING.  SOME
OF THESE HAVE HAD ROTATION AND STRONG INFLOW.  WE WILL BE WATCHING
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING IN THIS AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING ANYWHERE IN OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA.  SNOW LEVELS NEAR 3500 TO 4000 FEET THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WHERE APPROPRIATE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
FOR BURN AREAS OF EL DORADO COUNTY EXPIRES AT 6 PM WITH LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS.

THE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE BAY AREA TONIGHT THOUGH THERE IS ABOUT
A 100KM DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ETA AND THE GFS AS TO ITS EXACT
PLACEMENT.  EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA TONIGHT AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.  REMAINING AREAS
LIKELY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN FAVORED
AREAS.  UPPER LOW IS STILL HANGING AROUND TOMORROW AND DIURNAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM SACRAMENTO SOUTH.  NORTHERN AREAS
STABILIZE A BIT.  WE MAY SQUEEZE SOME MORE SHOWERS OUT IN THE SIERRA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY OPENS INTO A TROF AND LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY.  OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT SPLITS FRIDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR BOTH DAYS.  EXTENDED FORECAST SEEMS TO
FAVOR STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHERN AREAS.  WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR SATURDAY WITH ONE SUCH WEATHER
SYSTEM...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SG

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SIERRA THROUGH
      MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

   ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE BURN AREAS OF
      EL DORADO COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
700 AM PDT TUE OCT 26 2004

CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-271400-
SHASTA LAKE AREA/NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN/EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-MOTHERLODE-
EAST FOOTHILLS/NORTH SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
700 AM PDT TUE OCT 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TODAY IN THE SIERRA NEVADA FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS. ALSO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR MUD SLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE BURN AREAS AROUND
SHASTA LAKE AND POWER/FREDS BURNS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA. IN ADDITION THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY IN INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.........SEE WWUS46 KSTO - WSWSTO FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD STATEMENT..............SEE WGUS86 KSTO - FLSSTO FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
(LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/SACRAMENTO

PCH