Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Sacramento, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1020 AM PDT WED OCT 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP...COLD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT EAST AND
FILL DURING THE DAY TODAY.  VERY STRONG VORT MAX OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST APPEARS HEADED SOUTHEAST PER 12Z ETA/RUC.  A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF OUR AREA FROM AROUND FRESNO
NORTHEAST ALONG HIGHWAY 41.  CENTRAL VALLEYS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH DECENT TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
COLD AIR ALOFT.  AS THE VORT MAX APPEARS IT WILL NOT MOVE DUE EAST
WE ARE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT
HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THAT DEVELOP.

OROGRAPHICS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA AND IT IS STILL SNOWING AT ABOUT
AN INCH PER HOUR AT BLUE CANYON.  AS THE COLD POOL DRIFTS EAST SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM I-80 NORTH...BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON.  WILL ADDRESS TIMING
OF WSW IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.  THE URBAN/SMALL STREAM ADVISORY
FOR THE POWER/FREDS BURN AREA IS ALSO DEPENDANT ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS THE LOW OPENS INTO A TROF AND
MOVES INTO NEVADA.  SHOWERS END AND SKIES CLEAR.  THURSDAY SHOULD BE
A NICE DAY UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE.  OVERRUNNING MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE NORTH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...WHICH MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  THIS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
REGION...BUT IS NOWHERE AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AT
THE PRESENT TIME.  GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER COLD UPPER
LOW DROPPING INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS THIS SYSTEM.  ECMWF SOLUTION
IS CLOSE TO THE GFS WHILE THE UKMET AND TO SOME DEGREE THE NOGAPS
ARE FASTER IN MOVING THE MEAN TROF TO THE EAST.  SG

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    ...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TODAY FOR THE  WESTERN PLUMAS
       COUNTY INCLUDING THE LASSEN PARK AREA AND THE WEST SLOPES OF
       THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

    ...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
       AREAS OF AMADOR AND EL DORADO COUNTIES AFFECTED BY THE FREDS
       AND POWER WILDFIRES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
700 AM PDT TUE OCT 19 2004

CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-201400-
SHASTA LAKE AREA/NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN/EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-MOTHERLODE-
EAST FOOTHILLS/NORTH SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
700 AM PDT TUE OCT 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...

ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS...HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOW...AND RAIN TO THE VALLEY TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KSTO - WSWSTO FOR DETAILS *

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH..........SEE WGUS66 KSTO - FFASTO FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KSTO - NPWSTO FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE STORM WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE SIERRA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KSTO - WSWSTO FOR DETAILS *

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH..........SEE WGUS66 KSTO - FFASTO FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
(LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/SACRAMENTO

JJ