Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 975

May 29, 200418 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2004, 3:12 PM CDT for 18 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 29, 2004, 3:12 PM CDT (20:12 UTC)
Expired
May 29, 2004, 5:15 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2004-05-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2004-05-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 256 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
739 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
256 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
266 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

207 
ACUS11 KWNS 292013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292012 
MNZ000-NDZ000-292215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 292012Z - 292215Z

NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW
EAST OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
...MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS READILY APPARENT IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY LOOPS TO THE WEST OF JAMESTOWN ND.  STRONGER FORCING
WITH THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH
MAY INTENSIFY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT LIFTS INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
AREA.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AHEAD
OF SHEAR AXIS ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE 29.

WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS IMPEDED SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD ALONG/WEST OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THIS
REGION IS POTENTIALLY BUOYANT WITH CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN
SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 05/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46649958 47239956 47969967 48729941 48919848 48789701
46409699 45979821

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 28, 9:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDickey, Ransom, Richland, Sargent57 min
May 29, 3:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarnes, Benson, Cass, Cavalier, Dickey, Eddy and 18 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.