Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 97
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 6, 2004, 8:03 AM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 6, 2004, 8:03 AM EST (13:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 6, 2004, 1:00 PM EST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 100 counties
Berkshire County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Carroll County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Albany County, NY, Bronx County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Kings County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Madison County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orange County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Yates County, NY, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 481 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 72 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 324 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 1065 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
690 ACUS11 KWNS 061303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061303 NYZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-061800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 AM CST FRI FEB 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MD / ERN PA / NRN NJ / CENTRAL AND SERN NY / WRN MA AND CT CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 061303Z - 061800Z SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY OVER PA...WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER SERN NY. HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES WILL BE COMMON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF COLDEST WET BULB TEMPERATURES EXTENDING FROM NRN NY SWWD THROUGH ERN PA. THIS ZONE IS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE LONGEST DURATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT. 12Z IAD RAOB INDICATES A FZRA PROFILE IN CENTRAL MD...AND THE RUC FCST SOUNDINGS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. LATEST ETA LIKELY TYPE ALGORITHM SHOWS A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR MOST OF NJ...AND AS FAR N AS WRN LONG ISLAND BY 18Z. SURFACE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S F OVER SRN NJ. THE AREA AROUND NYC IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MDT TO HVY SNOW BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKLY ALOFT. 12Z OKX SOUNDING SHOWS SNOW PROFILE BUT VERY CLOSE TO ISOTHERMAL AROUND 0C AND ANY WARMING WILL CAUSE PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE. SERN NY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MIXING WITH SLEET BY 14Z WITH FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET AFTER 16Z. AREAS ALONG AND N OF A UCA - ALB - IJD LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS...AS THE 12Z ALB RAOB IS DECIDEDLY BELOW ZERO AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH ABOUT 16Z. ..JEWELL.. 02/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... 41417276 40797280 40347330 39777606 39587660 39187736 39307768 40187789 41027757 42207776 43277772 44177585 43407358 42227226 41677250
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 11:32 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr | |
| Feb 6, 12:04 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, Charles, Frederick and 8 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.