Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 965

May 28, 2004Pickens County, Alabama; 11 parishes in Louisiana; 27 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2004, 1:36 PM CDT for Pickens County, Alabama; 11 parishes in Louisiana; 27 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 28, 2004, 1:36 PM CDT (18:36 UTC)
Expired: May 28, 2004, 4:00 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 39 counties

Pickens County, AL, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Attala County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Madison County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Warren County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1044 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 110 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 281836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281836 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-282100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...CNTRL MS...W CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281836Z - 282100Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN SHORT
TERM...BUT COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  CORE OF MID/UPPER JET
IS PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...BUT BELT OF
MODERATELY STRONG 50+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW STILL EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...WHERE
FORCING MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/WEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  

HEATING AHEAD OF CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
AXIS OF DESTABILIZATION...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG.  THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AND WILL REMAIN RATHER
POOR.  THOUGH HAIL THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL...CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE STORM PROPAGATION...RISK OF GUSTY/ POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES.

..KERR.. 05/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

30679289 31709186 32249118 33099021 33398926 33348750
32288898 30369131

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 28, 2:07 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, Randolph, Talladega	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.