Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 964

May 28, 2004Berkshire County, Massachusetts; 11 counties in New York; 11 counties in Vermont

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2004, 12:55 PM EDT for Berkshire County, Massachusetts; 11 counties in New York; 11 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 28, 2004, 12:55 PM EDT (16:55 UTC)
Expired: May 28, 2004, 3:30 PM EDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 23 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Washington County, NY, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Essex County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Orleans County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 99 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 220 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -52 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 615 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 81 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 97 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

293 
ACUS11 KWNS 281655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281655 
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-281930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 281655Z - 281930Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A WW.

NARROW LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IS BECOMING FOCUS
FOR DESTABILIZATION AS MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHIFTS EAST OF
REGION.  MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY STILL ONLY ON THE ORDER
OF 500 J/KG OR SO...BUT MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH. 

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...BELT OF MODERATE
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE ENHANCED SHEAR PROFILES.  AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT/APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS AS THEY SPREAD EAST OF THE VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

..KERR.. 05/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

44457294 44997214 44717162 43787217 42877251 41647303
41077401 41457462 43067390 44337315

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.