Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 91

February 5, 200422 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 5, 2004, 4:42 PM CST for 22 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 5, 2004, 4:42 PM CST (22:42 UTC)
Expired: Feb 5, 2004, 10:45 PM CST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 22 counties

Adams County, WI, Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Columbia County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Juneau County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Portage County, WI, Richland County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 194 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1640 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 73 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

217 
ACUS11 KWNS 052243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052242 
WIZ000-IAZ000-060445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 052242Z - 060445Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH WILL
DEVELOP NEWD FROM SWRN/SCENTRAL WI INTO ECENTRAL/NERN WI THROUGH
06/03Z. THE MOST LIKELY AXIS FOR THE LONGEST DURATION OF HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MONROE TO GREEN BAY THROUGH 06/04Z.  

STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AIDING IN BANDED HEAVY SNOW
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF
SRN/CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
VORTICITY CENTER OVER NRN MO AT 05/22Z. SFC-850 MB LAYER OVER THE
AREA WAS RELATIVELY DRY...SUPPORTED BY ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ORIGINATING FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER LK SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF THE MESOSCALE LIFT ASST/D WITH THE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND RAPID PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ASST/D WITH THIS
FORCING ALONG WITH MODEST WAA AND PROLONGED DURATION OF STRONG LIFT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT FROM SW TO NE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CROSBIE.. 02/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...

42539062 42749111 43449118 44299068 44738799 43568783

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.