Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 907

May 25, 2004Harmon County, Jackson County, Oklahoma; 17 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 25, 2004, 11:28 PM CDT for Harmon County, Jackson County, Oklahoma; 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 25, 2004, 11:28 PM CDT (04:28 UTC)
Expired: May 26, 2004, 1:30 AM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Briscoe County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Motley County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 194 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 25 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -521 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1661 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 97 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 189 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

435 
ACUS11 KWNS 260429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260428 
OKZ000-TXZ000-260630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/NWRN TX TO SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 260428Z - 260630Z

STRONG TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX SOUTH PLAINS AND
NWRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ENEWD INTO PARTS OF SWRN OK. A FEW
OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED BUT A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING PLANNED.

A FEW CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF LBB AND SOUTH OF
CDS WITH STRONGER STORMS MOVING INTO NWRN STONEWALL...NRN DICKENS
AND KING COUNTIES. EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS PER 21Z ETAKF/00Z WRF4 QPF...AND TO SOME EXTENT RUC QPF
THROUGH 06Z. IT APPEARS THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WAS AIDING INTENSIFICATION
OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS THEN
BEING LIFTED ACROSS OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST TX AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS. SOURCE
REGION LAPSE RATES NOTED IN MAF 00Z SOUNDING COUPLED WITH STRONG
CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN THE 700-300MB LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE AND HAIL. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN SUBTLETIES OF HOW LONG STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. LIMITED COVERAGE IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST ETA AND GFS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

33149966 33000084 33610181 34400183 35030022 34549892

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 25, 7:07 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Jefferson, Johnston and 5 more	113 min
May 26, 12:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beckham, Custer, Dewey, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 3 more	3 hr
May 26, 3:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Greer, Harmon, Jackson	6 hr
May 26, 3:55 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 16 more	6 hr
May 26, 5:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 15 more	83 min
May 26, 6:07 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Greer, Harmon, Jackson	83 min
May 26, 6:25 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Cleveland, Creek, Grady, Lincoln, Logan, McClain and 7 more	5 hr
May 26, 6:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche and 24 more	83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.